RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Oct 24, 2021
Scott Novak
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.9
≈ in line with the league average (11.3)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
96.0
≈ in line with the league average (94.1)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.5
≈ in line with the league average (9.0)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 523 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playAT&T Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 116 (2nd of 32, 100 = league average) · 52.7 points a game in 87 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2023 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2023 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
NE offensevsDAL defense
NE offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · DAL defense in 5 (5 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 23 places
−0.23
#31
−0.06
Stronger#8
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.12
#20
−0.11
Stronger#12
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
30%
#31
38%
Stronger#15
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
58%
#11Stronger
60%
#22
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
7.7%
#25
7.6%
Stronger#8
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.76
#29
1.44
Stronger#13
DAL offensevsNE defense
DAL offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (4 by a clear margin) · NE defense in 2 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.17
#3Stronger
+0.01
#17
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.03
#10
−0.17
Stronger#2
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
50%
#1Stronger
37%
#7
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
58%
#12
48%
Stronger#6
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 18 places
5.9%
#10Stronger
5.7%
#28
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 22 places
0.94
#6Stronger
0.94
#28
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
NE offenseDAL defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors DAL
−0.23#31▼
−0.06#8▲
Pass success ratefavors DAL
39%#28
44%#9
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors DAL
5.4%#31▲
8.7%#19▲
Yards / dropbackfavors DAL
5.2#29
6.1#10▲
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
7.4
7.7
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
12%
11%
Short throws (≤5 air)
53%
49%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors DAL
−3.5#28▲
−4.1#4▲
YAC / completionfavors NE
5.3#16
5.8#28
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors DAL
7.7%#25▲
7.6%#8
Scramble rate
3.5%
6.1%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors DAL
3.8%#32▲
3.2%#4▲
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 40 · M 22 · R 38
L 39 · M 17 · R 44
DAL offenseNE defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors DAL
+0.17#3
+0.01#17▼
Pass success ratefavors DAL
51%#2
45%#13
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
9.1%#11▼
7.7%#13▼
Yards / dropback
6.7#9
5.8#8
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
7.9
8.2
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
12%
13%
Short throws (≤5 air)
52%
52%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors DAL
+4.0#3▲
+2.0#24▼
YAC / completionfavors NE
4.7#28
4.9#8
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors DAL
5.9%#10
5.7%#28▲
Scramble rate
4.4%
4.2%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors DAL
1.8%#8▲
1.7%#23▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 36 · M 18 · R 45
L 39 · M 17 · R 44
New England Patriots · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:NE scores 61% · allows 47%DAL scores 53% · allows 53%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
NEDALsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
NE11 games
Scored8.8
Allowed8.9
Pass share48%
42–54% · 303 plays
DAL6 games
Scored12.7
Allowed12.2
Pass share47%
40–53% · 172 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
NE4 games
Scored11.5
Allowed5.8
Pass share46%
30–62% · 145 plays
DAL2 games · small sample
Scored11.5
Allowed15.5
Pass share58%
64 plays · too few games for a range
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
NE2 games · small sample
Scored8.0
Allowed20.5
Pass share72%
68 plays · too few games for a range
DAL9 games
Scored14.2
Allowed14.1
Pass share62%
57–67% · 288 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
NEat the half: led 11 · within 3 in 4 · trailed 2 (of 17)
5.9
2.6Q1
8.8
5.9Q2
14.7scored8.5allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.7
4.2Q3
5.6
5.3Q4
DALat the half: led 6 · within 3 in 2 · trailed 9 (of 17)
5.8
7.2Q1
9.0
8.1Q2
14.8scored15.3allowedleague 11.4
1st half
7.0
5.2Q3
6.4
8.4Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.4
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
NEDAL
4-13
Record
12-6
13.9
Points for / game
30.1
21.5
Points against / game
20.2
1-8 / 3-5
Home / road
8-1 / 4-5
L L W L W
Last 5
L W W L L
2023 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
NEDAL
-0.172
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.096
-0.073
EPA / play allowed
-0.075
200
Pass yards / game
281
96
Rush yards / game
114
223
Pass yards allowed
209
93
Rush yards allowed
114
1.6 / 1.5
Turnovers / takeaways
0.9 / 1.7
2.8 / 2.1
Sacks allowed / made
2.4 / 2.5
14.5
First downs / game
20.8
40
Penalty yards / game
56
−5.5 · #43 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+7.6 · #3 of 52
2023 season to date · 17–18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
NEDAL
4-17 · 19%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
3-7 · 30%
Last two seasons (2022–2023), NE 34 games, DAL 37. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
2NEseriesDAL2
Avg total points
40.8
Meetings
4
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (4 of the 15 seasons in our history). DAL have won the last 2.
2023NE 3 at DAL 38DAL
2021DAL 35 at NE 29DAL
2019DAL 9 at NE 13NE
2015NE 30 at DAL 6NE
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
DeMario DouglasWR7914.6%
Ezekiel ElliottRB6512.0%
Hunter HenryTE6111.3%
DeVante ParkerWR5510.2%
Kendrick BourneWR5510.2%
Rhamondre StevensonRB519.4%
JuJu Smith-SchusterWR478.7%
Mike GesickiTE458.3%
Tyquan ThorntonWR234.3%
Jalen ReagorWR234.3%
Pharaoh BrownTE152.8%
Ty MontgomeryWR122.2%
Kayshon BoutteWR71.3%
Kevin HarrisRB30.6%
CeeDee LambWR19829.9%
Jake FergusonTE11417.2%
Brandin CooksWR8913.4%
Tony PollardRB7611.5%
Michael GallupWR639.5%
Jalen TolbertWR385.7%
Rico DowdleRB253.8%
KaVontae TurpinWR182.7%
Luke SchoonmakerTE162.4%
Deuce VaughnRB71.1%
Peyton HendershotTE71.1%
Jalen BrooksWR60.9%
Hunter LuepkeRB40.6%
Sean McKeonTE20.3%
New England Patriots2024–25 seasons
Dallas Cowboys2024–25 seasons
