The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
55%Miami DolphinsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MIA by 1.7market MIA by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
52.2 pointsmarket 54.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Miami Dolphins at 55% to win, with the market at MIA by 3.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Justin Herbert starting for Los Angeles Chargers, and the model prices that in.
MIA has the advantage in big plays: MIA explosive pass rate ranks #6, LAC defends it at #28; the other way LAC #25 into MIA's #12.
MIA has the advantage in rushing: MIA rushing ranks #16, LAC defends it at #31; the other way LAC #17 into MIA's #7.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours LAC. LAC turnovers / game ranks #4, MIA defends it at #26; the other way MIA #19 into LAC's #9. The pick still lands on MIA because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: LAC has the better last five games by 9.2 points a game (LAC +7.4, MIA -1.8).
Home field is with LAC, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it MIA by 1.7 against a market MIA by 3: 1.3 points of daylight in LAC's favour. The model's total is 52.2 against a line of 54.5: 2.3 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MIA by 1.7 · market MIA by 3
ⓘMost of these areas favor LAC, but the model still picks MIA. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
LAC passing ranks #13, MIA defends it at #19; the other way MIA #8 into LAC's #9.
Rushing game
MIA
Clear advantage
MIA rushing ranks #16, LAC defends it at #31; the other way LAC #17 into MIA's #7.
Third down & red zone
LAC
Clear advantage
LAC third-down conversion ranks #8, MIA defends it at #27; the other way MIA #24 into LAC's #10.
Big plays
MIA
Clear advantage
MIA explosive pass rate ranks #6, LAC defends it at #28; the other way LAC #25 into MIA's #12.
Pass protection & rush
LAC
Slight advantage
LAC sack rate ranks #6, MIA defends it at #17; the other way MIA #10 into LAC's #12.
Ball security
LAC
Clear advantage
LAC turnovers / game ranks #4, MIA defends it at #26; the other way MIA #19 into LAC's #9.
Form (last 5)
LAC
Clear advantage
LAC +7.4 per game over the last five, MIA −1.8.
Market
MIA
Slight advantage
Consensus has MIA by 3; the model says MIA by 1.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket MIA by 3 · model MIA by 1.7
Mkt MIA 3
Model MIA 1.7
← MIA by 28tieLAC by 28 →
2.2% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 54.5 · model 52.2
Mkt 54.5
Model 52.2
20 pts4672 pts
3.4% of NFL games finish between 54.5 and 52.2. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
