RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Jan 3, 2021
Scott Novak
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
12.8
≈ in line with the league average (11.5)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
101.5
≈ in line with the league average (97.2)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
10.1
≈ in line with the league average (9.1)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 510 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playSoFi Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 103 (10th of 32, 100 = league average) · 47.1 points a game in 52 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2022 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2022 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
MIA offensevsLAC defense
MIA offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · LAC defense in 2 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.07
#8slight
−0.04
#9
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 15 places
−0.04
#16Stronger
+0.07
#31
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
36%
#24
38%
Stronger#10
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
59%
#10slight
55%
#12
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
5.7%
#10slight
6.8%
#12
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.28
#19
1.39
Stronger#9
LAC offensevsMIA defense
LAC offense ranks better in 5 of 6 matchups (5 by a clear margin) · MIA defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.04
#13Stronger
+0.05
#19
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.05
#17
−0.10
Stronger#7
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 19 places
44%
#8Stronger
43%
#27
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
55%
#18Stronger
60%
#24
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
5.1%
#6Stronger
6.3%
#17
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 22 places
1.00
#4Stronger
0.94
#26
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
MIA offenseLAC defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
+0.07#8▼
−0.04#9▼
Pass success ratefavors LAC
45%#15
43%#7
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors MIA
9.5%#6▼
9.4%#28
Yards / dropbackfavors MIA
7.0#3▼
6.2#16
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
9.3
9.0
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
13%
14%
Short throws (≤5 air)
45%
45%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors LAC
−0.9#17▼
−1.9#7▼
YAC / completionfavors LAC
4.9#19
4.9#13
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:MIA scores 59% · allows 41%LAC scores 46% · allows 55%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
MIALACsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
MIA7 games
Scored10.0
Allowed12.4
Pass share40%
29–51% · 176 plays
LAC4 games
Scored13.5
Allowed6.8
Pass share33%
27–38% · 138 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
MIA2 games · small sample
Scored8.5
Allowed17.5
Pass share45%
66 plays · too few games for a range
LAC6 games
Scored8.3
Allowed8.3
Pass share46%
36–57% · 169 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
MIA8 games
Scored4.9
Allowed14.6
Pass share64%
57–72% · 188 plays
LAC7 games
Scored11.1
Allowed12.6
Pass share66%
60–72% · 221 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
MIAat the half: led 7 · within 3 in 2 · trailed 8 (of 17)
5.4
4.6Q1
5.5
5.3Q2
10.8scored9.9allowedleague 11.4
1st half
1.6
8.2Q3
5.6
5.9Q4
LACat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 6 · trailed 7 (of 17)
4.2
5.8Q1
5.1
5.9Q2
9.3scored11.7allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.4
3.9Q3
5.2
5.8Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
MIALAC
9-9
Record
10-8
23.8
Points for / game
23.4
24.1
Points against / game
23.1
6-2 / 3-7
Home / road
5-3 / 5-5
L W L L L
Last 5
L L W W W
2022 season only (not a rolling window) · 18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
MIALAC
0.029
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.018
-0.003
EPA / play allowed
0.019
277
Pass yards / game
281
96
Rush yards / game
88
257
Pass yards allowed
221
103
Rush yards allowed
144
1.2 / 1.4
Turnovers / takeaways
0.8 / 1.8
2.2 / 2.6
Sacks allowed / made
2.3 / 2.3
18.2
First downs / game
19.0
51
Penalty yards / game
38
+6.7 · #5 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+2.3 · #15 of 52
2022 season to date · 18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
MIALAC
6-12 · 33%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
4-7 · 36%
Last two seasons (2021–2022), MIA 35 games, LAC 35. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
6MIAseriesLAC4
Avg total points
46.4
Meetings
10
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (10 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2025LAC 29 at MIA 27LAC
2023MIA 36 at LAC 34MIA
2022MIA 17 at LAC 23LAC
2020LAC 21 at MIA 29MIA
2019LAC 30 at MIA 10LAC
2017MIA 19 at LAC 17MIA
2016MIA 31 at LAC 24MIA
2015MIA 14 at LAC 30LAC
All 10 meetings
2014LAC 0 at MIA 37MIA
2013LAC 16 at MIA 20MIA
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Tyreek HillWR18530.6%
Jaylen WaddleWR12420.5%
Mike GesickiTE589.6%
Trent SherfieldWR538.8%
Raheem MostertRB427.0%
Jeff WilsonRB284.6%
Alec IngoldFB233.8%
Durham SmytheTE213.5%
Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR193.1%
Chase EdmondsRB172.8%
River CracraftWR142.3%
Salvon AhmedRB61.0%
Myles GaskinRB61.0%
Braylon SandersWR30.5%
Tanner ConnerTE30.5%
Hunter LongTE10.2%
Erik EzukanmaWR10.2%
Austin EkelerRB13118.0%
Josh PalmerWR11315.5%
Keenan AllenWR10214.0%
Gerald EverettTE9513.0%
Mike WilliamsWR9312.8%
DeAndre CarterWR689.3%
Joshua KelleyRB263.6%
Michael BandyWR212.9%
Tre' McKittyTE202.7%
Donald ParhamTE172.3%
Sony MichelRB131.8%
Zander HorvathRB81.1%
Stone SmarttTE50.7%
Richard RodgersTE40.5%
Jalen GuytonWR40.5%
Isaiah SpillerRB30.4%
Jason MooreWR20.3%
Justin HerbertQB20.3%
Larry Rountree IIIRB20.3%
Miami Dolphins2024–25 seasons
Los Angeles Chargers2024–25 seasons
