The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
77%Los Angeles RamsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LAR by 10.1market LAR by 10
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
43.6 pointsmarket 41.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Los Angeles Rams at 77% to win, with the market at LAR by 10.
LAR has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: LAR third-down conversion ranks #18, CAR defends it at #25; the other way CAR #30 into LAR's #21.
Home field is with LAR, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it LAR by 10.1 against a market LAR by 10: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 43.6 against a line of 41.5: 2.1 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LAR by 10.1 · market LAR by 10
ⓘMost of these areas favor CAR, but the model still picks LAR. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
CAR
Slight advantage
CAR passing ranks #24, LAR defends it at #25; the other way LAR #30 into CAR's #22.
Rushing game
CAR
Slight advantage
CAR rushing ranks #7, LAR defends it at #12; the other way LAR #18 into CAR's #15.
Third down & red zone
LAR
Slight advantage
LAR third-down conversion ranks #18, CAR defends it at #25; the other way CAR #30 into LAR's #21.
Big plays
=
Even
LAR explosive rush rate ranks #24, CAR defends it at #20; the other way CAR #25 into LAR's #3.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
CAR sack rate ranks #22, LAR defends it at #19; the other way LAR #31 into CAR's #25.
Ball security
=
Even
CAR turnovers / game ranks #9, LAR defends it at #18; the other way LAR #23 into CAR's #27.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
LAR +0.4 per game over the last five, CAR +1.8.
Market
LAR
Clear advantage
Consensus has LAR by 10; the model says LAR by 10.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket LAR by 10 · model LAR by 10.1
Mkt LAR 10
Model LAR 10.1
← CAR by 28tieLAR by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. The market is on 10, a number 5.0% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 41.5 · model 43.6
Mkt 41.5
Model 43.6
20 pts4672 pts
5.2% of NFL games finish between 41.5 and 43.6. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
