RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 5 games since Sep 11, 2022
Tra Blake
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.4
≈ in line with the league average (12.1)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
94.0
≈ in line with the league average (99.2)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
8.8
≈ in line with the league average (9.6)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 80 league games, 5 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Small sample: under 15 games. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playSoFi Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 97 (25th of 32, 100 = league average) · 44.1 points a game in 53 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2022 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2022 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
CAR offensevsLAR defense
CAR offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · LAR defense in 3 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.07
#24slight
+0.07
#25
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.01
#7slight
−0.07
#12
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 9 places
32%
#30
41%
Stronger#21
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 11 places
57%
#12
44%
Stronger#1
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
7.1%
#22
6.2%
slight#19
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 9 places
1.06
#9Stronger
1.24
#18
LAR offensevsCAR defense
LAR offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · CAR defense in 3 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.11
#30
+0.05
Stronger#22
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.05
#18
−0.06
slight#15
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
39%
#18Stronger
42%
#25
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
56%
#17slight
56%
#18
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
9.7%
#31
5.5%
Stronger#25
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.35
#23slight
0.94
#27
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
CAR offenseLAR defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
−0.07#24▲
+0.07#25▼
Pass success rate
39%#30▲
49%#28
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors CAR
10.0%#3
7.3%#10
Yards / dropbackfavors CAR
6.2#14▲
6.5#24
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
7.3
6.6
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
13%
9%
Short throws (≤5 air)
56%
53%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors LAR
−4.9#32▲
+0.7#20▼
YAC / completionfavors CAR
6.4#2
5.3#26
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
7.1%#22▼
6.2%#19▲
Scramble rate
3.7%
4.1%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors LAR
2.9%#26▲
2.9%#9▲
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 37 · M 16 · R 48
L 43 · M 20 · R 38
LAR offenseCAR defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors CAR
−0.11#30
+0.05#22▲
Pass success rate
43%#20
46%#21
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors CAR
6.2%#27▲
8.2%#19▲
Yards / dropbackfavors CAR
5.3#30
6.3#19
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
7.0
8.1
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
11%
11%
Short throws (≤5 air)
58%
51%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.
−2.2#28▲
+2.4#32▼
YAC / completionfavors CAR
5.2#11
4.4#1▲
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors CAR
9.7%#31
5.5%#25
Scramble rate
3.8%
3.6%
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
2.8%#25▼
1.7%#27▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 38 · M 17 · R 45
L 39 · M 18 · R 43
Carolina Panthers · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
2022 season
DJ Moore · 118 (27.6%)Terrace Marshall Jr. · 47 (11.0%)Christian McCaffrey · 43 (10.1%)Shi Smith · 41 (9.6%)Laviska Shenault Jr. · 32 (7.5%)Tommy Tremble · 32 (7.5%)Ian Thomas · 30 (7.0%)Robbie Chosen · 27 (6.3%)Chuba Hubbard · 17 (4.0%)Raheem Blackshear · 12 (2.8%)D'Onta Foreman · 9 (2.1%)Giovanni Ricci · 9 (2.1%)Stephen Sullivan · 6 (1.4%)Spencer Brown · 4 (0.9%)
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:CAR scores 50% · allows 54%LAR scores 52% · allows 49%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
CARLARsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
CAR2 games · small sample
Scored8.5
Allowed1.5
Pass share41%
61 plays · too few games for a range
LAR10 games
Scored14.2
Allowed12.8
Pass share50%
42–58% · 318 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
CAR7 games
Scored9.4
Allowed12.6
Pass share51%
46–56% · 192 plays
LAR3 games
Scored9.0
Allowed13.7
Pass share54%
42–67% · 111 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
CAR8 games
Scored12.3
Allowed12.0
Pass share58%
47–69% · 270 plays
LAR4 games
Scored19.0
Allowed7.5
Pass share64%
53–75% · 135 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
CARat the half: led 2 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 8 (of 17)
4.0
4.7Q1
6.6
8.1Q2
10.6scored12.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.6
4.6Q3
4.9
6.4Q4
LARat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 4 (of 17)
7.0
4.1Q1
8.5
7.2Q2
15.5scored11.3allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.1
4.9Q3
7.8
6.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
CARLAR
7-10
Record
5-12
20.4
Points for / game
18.1
22.0
Points against / game
22.6
5-4 / 2-6
Home / road
4-5 / 1-7
W L W L W
Last 5
L L W L W
2022 season only (not a rolling window) · 17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
CARLAR
-0.035
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.085
0.011
EPA / play allowed
0.008
191
Pass yards / game
206
130
Rush yards / game
98
241
Pass yards allowed
241
123
Rush yards allowed
115
1.0 / 1.1
Turnovers / takeaways
1.1 / 1.5
2.1 / 2.1
Sacks allowed / made
3.5 / 2.2
15.1
First downs / game
15.9
51
Penalty yards / game
39
−3.5 · #42 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−2.9 · #39 of 52
2022 season to date · 17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
CARLAR
10-13 · 43%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-10 · 33%
Last two seasons (2021–2022), CAR 34 games, LAR 38. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3CARseriesLAR3
Avg total points
47.2
Meetings
6
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (5 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2025LAR 34 at CAR 31PlayoffsLAR
2025LAR 28 at CAR 31CAR
2022CAR 10 at LAR 24LAR
2019LAR 30 at CAR 27LAR
2016CAR 13 at LAR 10CAR
2013LAR 15 at CAR 30CAR
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
DJ MooreWR11827.6%
Terrace Marshall Jr.WR4711.0%
Christian McCaffreyRB4310.1%
Shi SmithWR419.6%
Laviska Shenault Jr.WR327.5%
Tommy TrembleTE327.5%
Ian ThomasTE307.0%
Robbie ChosenWR276.3%
Chuba HubbardRB174.0%
Raheem BlackshearRB122.8%
D'Onta ForemanRB92.1%
Giovanni RicciTE92.1%
Stephen SullivanTE61.4%
Spencer BrownRB40.9%
Tyler HigbeeTE10820.9%
Cooper KuppWR9819.0%
Ben SkowronekWR6111.8%
Allen RobinsonWR5210.1%
Van JeffersonWR448.5%
Tutu AtwellWR356.8%
Brandon PowellWR326.2%
Darrell HendersonRB224.3%
Cam AkersRB183.5%
Kyren WilliamsRB122.3%
Brycen HopkinsTE112.1%
Malcolm BrownRB61.2%
Ronnie RiversRB51.0%
Lance McCutcheonWR51.0%
Austin TrammellWR40.8%
Kendall BlantonTE20.4%
Jacob HarrisWR10.2%
Carolina Panthers2024–25 seasons
Los Angeles Rams2024–25 seasons
