The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
85%Detroit LionsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DET by 14.1market DET by 10
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
49.5 pointsmarket 44.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Detroit Lions at 85% to win, with the market at DET by 10.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Joe Flacco starting for Cleveland Browns, and the model prices that in.
DET has the advantage in passing: DET passing ranks #5, CLE defends it at #3; the other way CLE #32 into DET's #14.
DET has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: DET red-zone touchdown rate ranks #9, CLE defends it at #17; the other way CLE #25 into DET's #22.
Home field is with DET, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it DET by 14.1 against a market DET by 10: 4.1 points of daylight in DET's favour. The model's total is 49.5 against a line of 44.5: 5.0 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DET by 14.1 · market DET by 10
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
DET
Clear advantage
DET passing ranks #5, CLE defends it at #3; the other way CLE #32 into DET's #14.
Rushing game
DET
Slight advantage
DET rushing ranks #16, CLE defends it at #15; the other way CLE #25 into DET's #18.
Third down & red zone
DET
Slight advantage
DET red-zone touchdown rate ranks #9, CLE defends it at #17; the other way CLE #25 into DET's #22.
Big plays
DET
Slight advantage
DET explosive pass rate ranks #5, CLE defends it at #14; the other way CLE #30 into DET's #26.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
DET sack rate ranks #17, CLE defends it at #2; the other way CLE #25 into DET's #8.
Ball security
DET
Clear advantage
DET turnovers / game ranks #6, CLE defends it at #23; the other way CLE #29 into DET's #17.
Form (last 5)
DET
Slight advantage
DET −1.6 per game over the last five, CLE −4.8.
Market
DET
Clear advantage
Consensus has DET by 10; the model says DET by 14.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket DET by 10 · model DET by 14.1
Mkt DET 10
Model DET 14.1
← CLE by 28tieDET by 28 →
6.3% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 10, a number 5.0% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 44.5 · model 49.5
Mkt 44.5
Model 49.5
20 pts4672 pts
13.1% of NFL games finish between 44.5 and 49.5. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
