RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Oct 29, 2023
Shawn Smith
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
12.2
≈ in line with the league average (12.2)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
101.6
≈ in line with the league average (99.1)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.7
≈ in line with the league average (9.8)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 512 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playFord Field · TurfStadium scoring factor 116 (1st of 32, 100 = league average) · 52.7 points a game in 87 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
CLE offensevsDET defense
CLE offense ranks better in 0 of 6 matchups · DET defense in 6 (5 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 18 places
−0.25
#32
+0.01
Stronger#14
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.09
#25
−0.04
Stronger#18
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 21 places
34%
#30
37%
Stronger#9
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
53%
#25
60%
slight#22
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 17 places
8.0%
#25
7.7%
Stronger#8
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.41
#29
1.12
Stronger#17
DET offensevsCLE defense
DET offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · CLE defense in 4 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.17
#5
−0.11
slight#3
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.05
#16
−0.07
slight#15
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
39%
#19
37%
Stronger#8
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
63%
#9Stronger
58%
#17
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.3%
#17
9.4%
Stronger#2
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.88
#6Stronger
0.94
#23
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
CLE offenseDET defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors DET
−0.25#32
+0.01#14▼
Pass success ratefavors DET
34%#32
42%#6
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
5.5%#30
9.1%#26▼
Yards / dropbackfavors DET
4.8#30
6.1#16
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
6.8
9.9
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
10%
15%
Short throws (≤5 air)
56%
44%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors DET
−5.7#32▲
−1.1#9▼
YAC / completionfavors DET
5.3#12
4.3#3
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors DET
8.0%#25▲
7.7%#8
Scramble rate
5.0%
4.9%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors DET
3.2%#29▲
2.3%#13▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 38 · M 26 · R 36
L 36 · M 21 · R 43
DET offenseCLE defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
+0.17#5▼
−0.11#3▼
Pass success rate
48%#7
43%#8
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors DET
10.7%#5
7.8%#14▼
Yards / dropback
7.0#6
5.4#3
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
6.4
7.5
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
7%
13%
Short throws (≤5 air)
57%
54%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.
+1.5#11▼
+0.5#16▼
YAC / completionfavors DET
6.1#2
5.3#23
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors CLE
6.3%#17▲
9.4%#2▼
Scramble rate
0.8%
4.3%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors DET
1.4%#4▲
2.3%#15▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 32 · M 32 · R 35
L 36 · M 18 · R 46
Cleveland Browns · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:CLE scores 59% · allows 49%DET scores 50% · allows 42%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
CLEDETsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
CLE6 games
Scored7.3
Allowed8.2
Pass share48%
41–56% · 151 plays
DET7 games
Scored16.6
Allowed18.6
Pass share48%
40–56% · 206 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
CLE7 games
Scored7.3
Allowed13.7
Pass share58%
47–69% · 209 plays
DET8 games
Scored11.5
Allowed14.5
Pass share68%
56–81% · 247 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
CLE4 games
Scored7.3
Allowed11.0
Pass share62%
45–79% · 131 plays
DET2 games · small sample
Scored12.0
Allowed8.5
Pass share72%
65 plays · too few games for a range
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
CLEat the half: led 6 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 4 (of 17)
4.2
6.2Q1
6.4
4.6Q2
10.6scored10.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.5
5.6Q3
4.8
5.5Q4
DETat the half: led 7 · within 3 in 8 · trailed 2 (of 17)
4.0
4.7Q1
9.6
6.4Q2
13.6scored11.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.2
7.1Q3
7.6
8.0Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
CLEDET
5-12
Record
9-8
16.4
Points for / game
28.3
22.3
Points against / game
24.3
3-6 / 2-6
Home / road
5-3 / 4-5
W W L L L
Last 5
W L L L W
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
CLEDET
-0.181
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.075
-0.093
EPA / play allowed
-0.005
185
Pass yards / game
269
97
Rush yards / game
120
189
Pass yards allowed
237
116
Rush yards allowed
115
1.2 / 1.5
Turnovers / takeaways
0.7 / 1.6
3.0 / 3.1
Sacks allowed / made
2.3 / 2.8
13.8
First downs / game
19.4
49
Penalty yards / game
42
−3.6 · #41 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+5.4 · #10 of 52
2025 season to date · 17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
CLEDET
7-20 · 26%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
3-4 · 43%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), CLE 34 games, DET 35. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
1CLEseriesDET3
Avg total points
44.3
Meetings
4
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (4 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2025CLE 10 at DET 34DET
2021DET 10 at CLE 13CLE
2017CLE 24 at DET 38DET
2013DET 31 at CLE 17DET
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Harold Fannin Jr.TE10720.5%
Jerry JeudyWR10620.3%
David NjokuTE489.2%
Isaiah BondWR448.4%
Dylan SampsonRB407.7%
Cedric TillmanWR397.5%
Quinshon JudkinsRB366.9%
Jerome FordRB326.1%
Jamari ThrashWR152.9%
Gage LarvadainWR142.7%
Malachi CorleyWR142.7%
Trayveon WilliamsRB81.5%
Blake WhiteheartTE61.1%
Raheim SandersRB40.8%
Brenden BatesTE30.6%
Luke WyplerC10.2%
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR17231.3%
Jameson WilliamsWR10218.5%
Jahmyr GibbsRB9417.1%
Sam LaPortaTE498.9%
Kalif RaymondWR305.5%
David MontgomeryRB295.3%
Isaac TeSlaaWR274.9%
Brock WrightTE224.0%
Anthony FirkserTE101.8%
Ross DwelleyTE50.9%
Shane ZylstraTE50.9%
Tom KennedyWR40.7%
Giovanni RicciTE10.2%
Cleveland Browns2024–25 seasons
Detroit Lions2024–25 seasons
