The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
52%Dallas CowboysLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DAL by 0.5market WSH by 7
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
55.3 pointsmarket 43.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Dallas Cowboys at 52% to win, with the market at WSH by 7.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Trey Lance starting for Dallas Cowboys, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: rushing favours WSH. WSH rushing ranks #5, DAL defends it at #31; the other way DAL #27 into WSH's #28. The pick still lands on DAL because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with DAL, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it DAL by 0.5 against a market WSH by 7: 7.5 points of daylight in DAL's favour. The model's total is 55.3 against a line of 43.5: 11.8 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DAL by 0.5 · market WSH by 7
ⓘMost of these areas favor WSH, but the model still picks DAL. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
WSH
Clear advantage
WSH passing ranks #5, DAL defends it at #16; the other way DAL #30 into WSH's #18.
Rushing game
WSH
Clear advantage
WSH rushing ranks #5, DAL defends it at #31; the other way DAL #27 into WSH's #28.
Third down & red zone
WSH
Clear advantage
WSH red-zone touchdown rate ranks #7, DAL defends it at #32; the other way DAL #31 into WSH's #27.
Big plays
=
Even
WSH explosive pass rate ranks #16, DAL defends it at #22; the other way DAL #25 into WSH's #25.
Pass protection & rush
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL sack rate ranks #9, WSH defends it at #8; the other way WSH #20 into DAL's #2.
Ball security
WSH
Clear advantage
WSH turnovers / game ranks #7, DAL defends it at #13; the other way DAL #28 into WSH's #16.
Form (last 5)
WSH
Slight advantage
DAL −5.4 per game over the last five, WSH −1.0.
Market
WSH
Clear advantage
Consensus has WSH by 7; the model says DAL by 0.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket WSH by 7 · model DAL by 0.5
Mkt WSH 7
Model DAL 0.5
← WSH by 28tieDAL by 28 →
19.2% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 7, a number 8.6% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 43.5 · model 55.3
Mkt 43.5
Model 55.3
20 pts4672 pts
31.4% of NFL games finish between 43.5 and 55.3. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
