RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Sep 24, 2023
Clete Blakeman
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
13.2
≈ in line with the league average (12.1)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
108.2
≈ in line with the league average (98.9)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
10.5
≈ in line with the league average (9.7)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 510 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playAT&T Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 116 (2nd of 32, 100 = league average) · 52.7 points a game in 87 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2024 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2024 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
WSH offensevsDAL defense
WSH offense ranks better in 5 of 6 matchups (4 by a clear margin) · DAL defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.20
#5Stronger
+0.06
#16
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 26 places
+0.03
#5Stronger
+0.11
#31
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
45%
#7slight
37%
#8
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 25 places
63%
#7Stronger
75%
#32
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 18 places
6.9%
#20
8.7%
Stronger#2
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.85
#7Stronger
1.24
#13
DAL offensevsWSH defense
DAL offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups · WSH defense in 5 (3 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.10
#30
+0.07
Stronger#18
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.12
#27slight
+0.01
#28
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
37%
#23
39%
Stronger#15
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
46%
#31
64%
slight#27
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
5.6%
#9
7.2%
slight#8
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.59
#28
1.05
Stronger#16
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
WSH offenseDAL defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors WSH
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:WSH scores 48% · allows 50%DAL scores 53% · allows 53%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
WSHDALsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
WSH2 games · small sample
Scored11.5
Allowed17.5
Pass share39%
56 plays · too few games for a range
DAL6 games
Scored12.7
Allowed12.2
Pass share47%
40–53% · 172 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
WSH5 games
Scored9.2
Allowed12.6
Pass share44%
32–56% · 134 plays
DAL2 games · small sample
Scored11.5
Allowed15.5
Pass share58%
64 plays · too few games for a range
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
WSH10 games
Scored10.5
Allowed14.2
Pass share55%
48–62% · 300 plays
DAL9 games
Scored14.2
Allowed14.1
Pass share62%
57–67% · 288 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
WSHat the half: led 2 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 10 (of 17)
2.3
5.4Q1
7.3
8.9Q2
9.6scored14.2allowedleague 11.4
1st half
4.4
7.2Q3
5.5
6.4Q4
DALat the half: led 6 · within 3 in 2 · trailed 9 (of 17)
5.8
7.2Q1
9.0
8.1Q2
14.8scored15.3allowedleague 11.4
1st half
7.0
5.2Q3
6.4
8.4Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
WSHDAL
14-6
Record
7-10
28.8
Points for / game
20.6
24.9
Points against / game
27.5
7-2 / 7-4
Home / road
2-7 / 5-3
L W W W W
Last 5
L L W W L
2024 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–20 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
WSHDAL
0.134
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.089
0.034
EPA / play allowed
0.080
239
Pass yards / game
241
149
Rush yards / game
100
213
Pass yards allowed
238
143
Rush yards allowed
137
0.8 / 1.4
Turnovers / takeaways
1.4 / 1.8
2.7 / 2.4
Sacks allowed / made
2.2 / 3.0
20.6
First downs / game
17.1
54
Penalty yards / game
54
+8.0 · #4 of 49
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
—
2024 season to date · 17–20 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
WSHDAL
8-14 · 36%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-13 · 28%
Last two seasons (2023–2024), WSH 37 games, DAL 35. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
9WSHseriesDAL20
Avg total points
50.6
Meetings
29
Division rivals — they meet twice every season. DAL have won the last 3.
2026WSH 20 at DAL 37DAL
2025DAL 30 at WSH 23DAL
2025WSH 22 at DAL 44DAL
2024WSH 23 at DAL 19WSH
2024DAL 34 at WSH 26DAL
2023DAL 38 at WSH 10DAL
2023WSH 10 at DAL 45DAL
2022DAL 6 at WSH 26WSH
All 29 meetings
2022WSH 10 at DAL 25DAL
2021WSH 14 at DAL 56DAL
2021DAL 27 at WSH 20DAL
2020WSH 41 at DAL 16WSH
2020DAL 3 at WSH 25WSH
2019WSH 16 at DAL 47DAL
2019DAL 31 at WSH 21DAL
2018WSH 23 at DAL 31DAL
2018DAL 17 at WSH 20WSH
2017WSH 14 at DAL 38DAL
2017DAL 33 at WSH 19DAL
2016WSH 26 at DAL 31DAL
2016DAL 27 at WSH 23DAL
2015WSH 34 at DAL 23WSH
2015DAL 19 at WSH 16DAL
2014DAL 44 at WSH 17DAL
2014WSH 20 at DAL 17WSH
2013DAL 24 at WSH 23DAL
2013WSH 16 at DAL 31DAL
2012DAL 18 at WSH 28WSH
2012WSH 38 at DAL 31WSH
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Terry McLaurinWR14022.9%
Zach ErtzTE11619.0%
Olamide ZaccheausWR7412.1%
Dyami BrownWR589.5%
Noah BrownWR569.2%
Austin EkelerRB569.2%
Brian RobinsonRB304.9%
Luke McCaffreyWR254.1%
Jamison CrowderWR182.9%
John BatesTE182.9%
Jeremy McNicholsRB122.0%
Ben SinnottTE61.0%
Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB10.2%
Brycen TremayneWR10.2%
CeeDee LambWR15224.6%
Jake FergusonTE8613.9%
Jalen TolbertWR7912.8%
Brandin CooksWR548.7%
KaVontae TurpinWR528.4%
Rico DowdleRB497.9%
Luke SchoonmakerTE365.8%
Jalen BrooksWR304.8%
Hunter LuepkeRB162.6%
Jonathan MingoWR162.6%
Ezekiel ElliottRB152.4%
Ryan FlournoyWR142.3%
Brevyn Spann-FordTE142.3%
Deuce VaughnRB50.8%
Dalvin CookRB10.2%
Washington Commanders2024–25 seasons
Dallas Cowboys2024–25 seasons
