The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
55%Tampa Bay BuccaneersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TB by 1.8market TB by 4.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
51.8 pointsmarket 47.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 55% to win, with the market at TB by 4.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Cooper Rush starting for Dallas Cowboys, and the model prices that in.
TB has the advantage in rushing: TB rushing ranks #6, DAL defends it at #31; the other way DAL #27 into TB's #6.
TB has the advantage in big plays: TB explosive rush rate ranks #4, DAL defends it at #24; the other way DAL #19 into TB's #2.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours DAL. DAL sack rate ranks #9, TB defends it at #19; the other way TB #16 into DAL's #2. The pick still lands on TB because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: TB has the better last five games by 17.4 points a game (DAL -5.4, TB +12.0).
Home field is with DAL, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it TB by 1.8 against a market TB by 4.5: 2.7 points of daylight in DAL's favour. The model's total is 51.8 against a line of 47.5: 4.3 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TB by 1.8 · market TB by 4.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
TB
Clear advantage
TB passing ranks #4, DAL defends it at #16; the other way DAL #30 into TB's #25.
Rushing game
TB
Clear advantage
TB rushing ranks #6, DAL defends it at #31; the other way DAL #27 into TB's #6.
Third down & red zone
TB
Clear advantage
TB red-zone touchdown rate ranks #4, DAL defends it at #32; the other way DAL #31 into TB's #9.
Big plays
TB
Clear advantage
TB explosive rush rate ranks #4, DAL defends it at #24; the other way DAL #19 into TB's #2.
Pass protection & rush
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL sack rate ranks #9, TB defends it at #19; the other way TB #16 into DAL's #2.
Ball security
DAL
Slight advantage
DAL turnovers / game ranks #28, TB defends it at #26; the other way TB #23 into DAL's #13.
Form (last 5)
TB
Clear advantage
DAL −5.4 per game over the last five, TB +12.0.
Market
TB
Clear advantage
Consensus has TB by 4.5; the model says TB by 1.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket TB by 4.5 · model TB by 1.8
Mkt TB 4.5
Model TB 1.8
← TB by 28tieDAL by 28 →
11.6% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 51.8
Mkt 47.5
Model 51.8
20 pts4672 pts
11.5% of NFL games finish between 47.5 and 51.8. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
