RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Jan 8, 2023
Land Clark
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.6
≈ in line with the league average (11.9)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
96.6
≈ in line with the league average (97.1)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.4
≈ in line with the league average (9.5)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 539 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playAT&T Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 116 (2nd of 32, 100 = league average) · 52.7 points a game in 87 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2024 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2024 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
TB offensevsDAL defense
TB offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (4 by a clear margin) · DAL defense in 2 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.21
#4Stronger
+0.06
#16
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 25 places
+0.01
#6Stronger
+0.11
#31
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
51%
#2Stronger
37%
#8
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 28 places
67%
#4Stronger
75%
#32
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.1%
#16
8.7%
Stronger#2
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.33
#23
1.24
Stronger#13
DAL offensevsTB defense
DAL offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · TB defense in 5 (3 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.10
#30
+0.10
slight#25
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.12
#27
−0.13
Stronger#6
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
37%
#23
39%
Stronger#13
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 22 places
46%
#31
53%
Stronger#9
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
5.6%
#9Stronger
6.3%
#19
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.59
#28
0.89
slight#26
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
TB offenseDAL defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors TB
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:TB scores 50% · allows 55%DAL scores 53% · allows 53%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
TBDALsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
TB5 games
Scored12.8
Allowed10.4
Pass share46%
36–56% · 130 plays
DAL6 games
Scored12.7
Allowed12.2
Pass share47%
40–53% · 172 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
TB6 games
Scored10.7
Allowed14.8
Pass share51%
47–56% · 177 plays
DAL2 games · small sample
Scored11.5
Allowed15.5
Pass share58%
64 plays · too few games for a range
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
TB6 games
Scored8.7
Allowed7.5
Pass share69%
61–76% · 188 plays
DAL9 games
Scored14.2
Allowed14.1
Pass share62%
57–67% · 288 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
TBat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 6 · trailed 6 (of 17)
4.4
4.8Q1
6.2
8.4Q2
10.5scored13.2allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.9
5.0Q3
4.6
5.9Q4
DALat the half: led 6 · within 3 in 2 · trailed 9 (of 17)
5.8
7.2Q1
9.0
8.1Q2
14.8scored15.3allowedleague 11.4
1st half
7.0
5.2Q3
6.4
8.4Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.4
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
TBDAL
10-8
Record
7-10
29.0
Points for / game
20.6
22.7
Points against / game
27.5
5-5 / 5-3
Home / road
2-7 / 5-3
L W W L W
Last 5
L L W W L
2024 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
TBDAL
0.124
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.089
0.031
EPA / play allowed
0.080
261
Pass yards / game
241
147
Rush yards / game
100
263
Pass yards allowed
238
97
Rush yards allowed
137
1.3 / 1.3
Turnovers / takeaways
1.4 / 1.8
2.3 / 2.6
Sacks allowed / made
2.2 / 3.0
20.9
First downs / game
17.1
50
Penalty yards / game
54
+7.1 · #7 of 49
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−3.9 · #38 of 49
2024 season to date · 17–18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
TBDAL
9-12 · 43%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-13 · 28%
Last two seasons (2023–2024), TB 37 games, DAL 35. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3TBseriesDAL5
Avg total points
39.0
Meetings
8
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (7 of the 15 seasons in our history). DAL have won the last 2.
2024TB 24 at DAL 26DAL
2022DAL 31 at TB 14PlayoffsDAL
2022TB 19 at DAL 3TB
2021DAL 29 at TB 31TB
2018TB 20 at DAL 27DAL
2016TB 20 at DAL 26DAL
2015DAL 6 at TB 10TB
2012TB 10 at DAL 16DAL
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Mike EvansWR11720.2%
Cade OttonTE8915.3%
Jalen McMillanWR6210.7%
Chris Godwin Jr.WR6210.7%
Rachaad WhiteRB5910.2%
Bucky IrvingRB549.3%
Sterling ShepardWR518.8%
Trey PalmerWR223.8%
Ryan MillerWR203.4%
Payne DurhamTE142.4%
Sean TuckerRB122.1%
Rakim JarrettWR111.9%
Devin CulpTE61.0%
Kameron JohnsonWR10.2%
CeeDee LambWR15224.6%
Jake FergusonTE8613.9%
Jalen TolbertWR7912.8%
Brandin CooksWR548.7%
KaVontae TurpinWR528.4%
Rico DowdleRB497.9%
Luke SchoonmakerTE365.8%
Jalen BrooksWR304.8%
Hunter LuepkeRB162.6%
Jonathan MingoWR162.6%
Ezekiel ElliottRB152.4%
Ryan FlournoyWR142.3%
Brevyn Spann-FordTE142.3%
Deuce VaughnRB50.8%
Dalvin CookRB10.2%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers2024–25 seasons
Dallas Cowboys2024–25 seasons
