The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
62%Philadelphia EaglesSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
PHI by 4.0market PHI by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
44.2 pointsmarket 49
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Philadelphia Eagles at 62% to win, with the market at PHI by 3.
PHI has the advantage in rushing: PHI rushing ranks #4, LAR defends it at #23; the other way LAR #19 into PHI's #1.
PHI has the advantage in big plays: PHI explosive pass rate ranks #6, LAR defends it at #27; the other way LAR #14 into PHI's #1.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours LAR. LAR sack rate ranks #11, PHI defends it at #10; the other way PHI #31 into LAR's #4. The pick still lands on PHI because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: PHI has 3 more days since its last game (LAR 7d, PHI 10d).
Form: PHI has the better last five games by 10.8 points a game (LAR +4.2, PHI +15.0).
Home field is with LAR, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it PHI by 4.0 against a market PHI by 3: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 44.2 against a line of 49: 4.8 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model PHI by 4.0 · market PHI by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
PHI
Clear advantage
PHI passing ranks #6, LAR defends it at #14; the other way LAR #13 into PHI's #2.
Rushing game
PHI
Clear advantage
PHI rushing ranks #4, LAR defends it at #23; the other way LAR #19 into PHI's #1.
Third down & red zone
PHI
Clear advantage
PHI third-down conversion ranks #10, LAR defends it at #18; the other way LAR #24 into PHI's #5.
Big plays
PHI
Clear advantage
PHI explosive pass rate ranks #6, LAR defends it at #27; the other way LAR #14 into PHI's #1.
Pass protection & rush
LAR
Clear advantage
LAR sack rate ranks #11, PHI defends it at #10; the other way PHI #31 into LAR's #4.
Ball security
PHI
Clear advantage
PHI turnovers / game ranks #2, LAR defends it at #14; the other way LAR #6 into PHI's #2.
Form (last 5)
PHI
Clear advantage
LAR +4.2 per game over the last five, PHI +15.0.
Market
PHI
Slight advantage
Consensus has PHI by 3; the model says PHI by 4.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket PHI by 3 · model PHI by 4.0
Mkt PHI 3
Model PHI 4.0
← PHI by 28tieLAR by 28 →
No whole-number margin falls between 3 and 4.0, so the two numbers differ only on a push at 3. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 49 · model 44.2
Mkt 49
Model 44.2
20 pts4672 pts
10.8% of NFL games finish between 49 and 44.2. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
