The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
67%Kansas City ChiefsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
KC by 5.8market KC by 7.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
38.7 pointsmarket 41.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Kansas City Chiefs at 67% to win, with the market at KC by 7.5.
Counterpoint: passing favours LAC. LAC passing ranks #15, KC defends it at #26; the other way KC #10 into LAC's #6. The pick still lands on KC because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: LAC has the better last five games by 7.2 points a game (LAC +2.2, KC -5.0).
Home field is with LAC, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it KC by 5.8 against a market KC by 7.5: 1.7 points of daylight in LAC's favour. The model's total is 38.7 against a line of 41.5: 2.8 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model KC by 5.8 · market KC by 7.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor LAC, but the model still picks KC. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
LAC
Clear advantage
LAC passing ranks #15, KC defends it at #26; the other way KC #10 into LAC's #6.
Rushing game
=
Even
LAC rushing ranks #17, KC defends it at #12; the other way KC #14 into LAC's #7.
Third down & red zone
LAC
Slight advantage
LAC third-down conversion ranks #11, KC defends it at #24; the other way KC #3 into LAC's #4.
Big plays
=
Even
LAC explosive pass rate ranks #10, KC defends it at #23; the other way KC #27 into LAC's #18.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
LAC sack rate ranks #23, KC defends it at #16; the other way KC #18 into LAC's #9.
Ball security
LAC
Slight advantage
LAC turnovers / game ranks #3, KC defends it at #17; the other way KC #9 into LAC's #9.
Form (last 5)
LAC
Clear advantage
LAC +2.2 per game over the last five, KC −5.0.
Market
KC
Clear advantage
Consensus has KC by 7.5; the model says KC by 5.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket KC by 7.5 · model KC by 5.8
Mkt KC 7.5
Model KC 5.8
← KC by 28tieLAC by 28 →
7.1% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 41.5 · model 38.7
Mkt 41.5
Model 38.7
20 pts4672 pts
9.3% of NFL games finish between 41.5 and 38.7. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
