RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Oct 16, 2022
Shawn Smith
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.5
≈ in line with the league average (11.3)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
96.5
≈ in line with the league average (92.8)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
8.9
≈ in line with the league average (9.0)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 537 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playSoFi Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 103 (10th of 32, 100 = league average) · 47.1 points a game in 52 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2024 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2024 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
KC offensevsLAC defense
KC offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups · LAC defense in 4 (3 by a clear margin) · 1 even
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.13
#10
−0.03
slight#6
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.06
#14
−0.12
Stronger#7
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
48%
#3slight
36%
#4
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 17 places
55%
#19
45%
Stronger#2
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.6%
#18
7.1%
Stronger#9
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.· even
0.90
#9
1.39
#9
LAC offensevsKC defense
LAC offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · KC defense in 3 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.06
#15Stronger
+0.10
#26
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.07
#17
−0.09
slight#12
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 13 places
40%
#11Stronger
43%
#24
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
55%
#20
54%
Stronger#11
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
7.7%
#23
6.7%
Stronger#16
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 14 places
0.67
#3Stronger
1.00
#17
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
KC offenseLAC defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:KC scores 47% · allows 52%LAC scores 46% · allows 55%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
KCLACsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
KC4 games
Scored12.8
Allowed7.5
Pass share43%
31–56% · 127 plays
LAC4 games
Scored13.5
Allowed6.8
Pass share33%
27–38% · 138 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
KC10 games
Scored11.9
Allowed10.6
Pass share61%
55–67% · 280 plays
LAC6 games
Scored8.3
Allowed8.3
Pass share46%
36–57% · 169 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
KC3 games
Scored10.7
Allowed7.7
Pass share57%
48–66% · 114 plays
LAC7 games
Scored11.1
Allowed12.6
Pass share66%
60–72% · 221 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
KCat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 10 · trailed 3 (of 17)
4.9
3.9Q1
5.7
6.1Q2
10.6scored10.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
4.4
3.7Q3
7.0
5.5Q4
LACat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 6 · trailed 7 (of 17)
4.2
5.8Q1
5.1
5.9Q2
9.3scored11.7allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.4
3.9Q3
5.2
5.8Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.4
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
KCLAC
17-3
Record
11-7
23.1
Points for / game
23.0
20.4
Points against / game
18.5
10-0 / 7-3
Home / road
5-3 / 6-4
L W W L W
Last 5
L W W W L
2024 season only (not a rolling window) · 18–20 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
KCLAC
0.051
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.010
0.025
EPA / play allowed
-0.067
236
Pass yards / game
230
101
Rush yards / game
107
234
Pass yards allowed
225
108
Rush yards allowed
120
0.8 / 1.6
Turnovers / takeaways
0.6 / 1.4
2.6 / 2.5
Sacks allowed / made
2.7 / 2.7
18.6
First downs / game
16.6
48
Penalty yards / game
40
+5.2 · #11 of 49
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+3.0 · #16 of 49
2024 season to date · 18–20 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
KCLAC
5-2 · 71%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
1-11 · 8%
Last two seasons (2023–2024), KC 41 games, LAC 35. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
19KCseriesLAC9
Avg total points
46.6
Meetings
28
Division rivals — they meet twice every season. LAC have won the last 2.
2025LAC 16 at KC 13LAC
2025KC 21 vs LAC 27LAC
2024LAC 17 at KC 19KC
2024KC 17 at LAC 10KC
2023KC 13 at LAC 12KC
2023LAC 17 at KC 31KC
2022KC 30 at LAC 27KC
2022LAC 24 at KC 27KC
All 28 meetings
2021KC 34 at LAC 28KC
2021LAC 30 at KC 24LAC
2020LAC 38 at KC 21LAC
2020KC 23 at LAC 20KC
2019LAC 21 at KC 31KC
2019KC 24 vs LAC 17KC
2018LAC 29 at KC 28LAC
2018KC 38 at LAC 28KC
2017LAC 13 at KC 30KC
2017KC 24 at LAC 10KC
2016KC 37 at LAC 27KC
2016LAC 27 at KC 33KC
2015LAC 3 at KC 10KC
2015KC 33 at LAC 3KC
2014LAC 7 at KC 19KC
2014KC 23 at LAC 20KC
2013KC 24 at LAC 27LAC
2013LAC 41 at KC 38LAC
2012KC 13 at LAC 31LAC
2012LAC 37 at KC 20LAC
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Travis KelceTE15123.2%
Xavier WorthyWR11918.3%
DeAndre HopkinsWR6710.3%
Noah GrayTE538.1%
Samaje PerineRB385.8%
Kareem HuntRB355.4%
Justin WatsonWR324.9%
JuJu Smith-SchusterWR324.9%
Rashee RiceWR294.5%
Marquise BrownWR284.3%
Isiah PachecoRB213.2%
Mecole HardmanWR142.2%
Carson SteeleRB111.7%
Nikko RemigioWR60.9%
Peyton HendershotTE50.8%
Joseph FortsonTE30.5%
Skyy MooreWR30.5%
Patrick MahomesQB10.2%
Justyn RossWR10.2%
Baylor CuppTE10.2%
Jared WileyTE10.2%
Ladd McConkeyWR12624.3%
Quentin JohnstonWR9618.5%
Will DisslyTE6913.3%
Josh PalmerWR6512.5%
J.K. DobbinsRB397.5%
Stone SmarttTE193.7%
Derius DavisWR183.5%
Simi FehokoWR163.1%
DJ CharkWR142.7%
Hayden HurstTE132.5%
Jalen ReagorWR122.3%
Kimani VidalRB91.7%
Tucker FiskTE91.7%
Gus EdwardsRB51.0%
Hassan HaskinsRB40.8%
Eric TomlinsonTE40.8%
Kansas City Chiefs2024–25 seasons
Los Angeles Chargers2024–25 seasons
