The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
63%Dallas CowboysSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DAL by 4.6market DAL by 6.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
51.6 pointsmarket 47
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Dallas Cowboys at 63% to win, with the market at DAL by 6.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Dak Prescott starting for Dallas Cowboys, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: rushing favours NO. NO rushing ranks #10, DAL defends it at #31; the other way DAL #27 into NO's #30. The pick still lands on DAL because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with DAL, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it DAL by 4.6 against a market DAL by 6.5: 1.9 points of daylight in NO's favour. The model's total is 51.6 against a line of 47: 4.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DAL by 4.6 · market DAL by 6.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor NO, but the model still picks DAL. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
NO passing ranks #28, DAL defends it at #16; the other way DAL #30 into NO's #13.
Rushing game
NO
Clear advantage
NO rushing ranks #10, DAL defends it at #31; the other way DAL #27 into NO's #30.
Third down & red zone
NO
Slight advantage
NO red-zone touchdown rate ranks #13, DAL defends it at #32; the other way DAL #31 into NO's #15.
Big plays
=
Even
NO explosive rush rate ranks #16, DAL defends it at #24; the other way DAL #19 into NO's #22.
Pass protection & rush
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL sack rate ranks #9, NO defends it at #25; the other way NO #15 into DAL's #2.
Ball security
NO
Slight advantage
NO turnovers / game ranks #10, DAL defends it at #13; the other way DAL #28 into NO's #19.
Form (last 5)
DAL
Slight advantage
DAL −5.4 per game over the last five, NO −11.0.
Market
DAL
Clear advantage
Consensus has DAL by 6.5; the model says DAL by 4.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket DAL by 6.5 · model DAL by 4.6
Mkt DAL 6.5
Model DAL 4.6
← NO by 28tieDAL by 28 →
5.7% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 47 · model 51.6
Mkt 47
Model 51.6
20 pts4672 pts
11.5% of NFL games finish between 47 and 51.6. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
