RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Oct 23, 2022
Adrian Hill
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.5
≈ in line with the league average (11.1)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
95.0
≈ in line with the league average (91.2)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.3
≈ in line with the league average (8.8)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 491 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playAT&T Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 116 (2nd of 32, 100 = league average) · 52.7 points a game in 87 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2024 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2024 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
NO offensevsDAL defense
NO offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · DAL defense in 3 (3 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.08
#28
+0.06
Stronger#16
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 21 places
−0.02
#10Stronger
+0.11
#31
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 20 places
35%
#28
37%
Stronger#8
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 19 places
58%
#13Stronger
75%
#32
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.0%
#15
8.7%
Stronger#2
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.00
#10slight
1.24
#13
DAL offensevsNO defense
DAL offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · NO defense in 4 (3 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.10
#30
+0.04
Stronger#13
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.12
#27slight
+0.04
#30
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
37%
#23
41%
slight#21
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
46%
#31
56%
Stronger#15
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
5.6%
#9Stronger
5.8%
#25
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.59
#28
1.00
Stronger#19
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
NO offenseDAL defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors DAL
−0.08#28▼
+0.06#16▲
Pass success ratefavors DAL
40%#31
45%#12
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
7.8%#19▼
8.7%#22
Yards / dropbackfavors NO
6.0#21
6.8#27
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
8.1
8.3
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
14%
14%
Short throws (≤5 air)
53%
52%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.
−3.2#29▼
+3.8#29▲
YAC / completionfavors NO
5.4#9
6.1#31▼
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors DAL
6.0%#15
8.7%#2
Scramble rate
4.4%
5.7%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors DAL
2.2%#17▲
2.5%#10▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 31 · M 26 · R 42
L 38 · M 21 · R 42
DAL offenseNO defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors NO
−0.10#30▲
+0.04#13▲
Pass success ratefavors NO
41%#29
44%#9
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
7.0%#25▲
9.1%#26
Yards / dropback
5.7#26
6.6#24
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
7.4
8.3
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
10%
13%
Short throws (≤5 air)
53%
49%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors NO
−4.8#31
−3.0#3▼
YAC / completion
5.1#22
5.8#27▼
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors DAL
5.6%#9▼
5.8%#25▼
Scramble rate
1.8%
6.7%
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
2.2%#18
2.4%#13▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 31 · M 23 · R 46
L 37 · M 23 · R 39
New Orleans Saints · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
2024 season
Alvin Kamara · 89 (17.2%)Juwan Johnson · 66 (12.8%)Chris Olave · 44 (8.5%)Foster Moreau · 43 (8.3%)Rashid Shaheed · 41 (7.9%)Marquez Valdes-Scantling · 35 (6.8%)Taysom Hill · 31 (6.0%)Dante Pettis · 28 (5.4%)Cedrick Wilson Jr. · 27 (5.2%)Mason Tipton · 26 (5.0%)Kevin Austin Jr. · 22 (4.3%)Jordan Mims · 18 (3.5%)Bub Means · 15 (2.9%)Jamaal Williams · 11 (2.1%)Kendre Miller · 8 (1.5%)Clyde Edwards-Helaire · 5 (1.0%)Dallin Holker · 4 (0.8%)Adam Prentice · 4 (0.8%)
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 3–4 in 2026, 13–14 in 2025
Points in the 1st half:NO scores 41% · allows 61%DAL scores 53% · allows 53%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 3–4 in 2026, 13–14 in 2025
NODALsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
NO0 games
None in the last 17.
DAL6 games
Scored12.7
Allowed12.2
Pass share47%
40–53% · 172 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
NO7 games
Scored13.0
Allowed6.4
Pass share49%
38–60% · 224 plays
DAL2 games · small sample
Scored11.5
Allowed15.5
Pass share58%
64 plays · too few games for a range
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
NO10 games
Scored11.1
Allowed10.2
Pass share65%
60–69% · 327 plays
DAL9 games
Scored14.2
Allowed14.1
Pass share62%
57–67% · 288 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 3–4 in 2026, 13–14 in 2025
NOat the half: led 0 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 10 (of 17)
2.1
6.4Q1
6.1
7.1Q2
8.1scored13.5allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.5
4.3Q3
6.0
3.9Q4
DALat the half: led 6 · within 3 in 2 · trailed 9 (of 17)
5.8
7.2Q1
9.0
8.1Q2
14.8scored15.3allowedleague 11.4
1st half
7.0
5.2Q3
6.4
8.4Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.4
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
NODAL
5-12
Record
7-10
19.9
Points for / game
20.6
23.4
Points against / game
27.5
3-6 / 2-6
Home / road
2-7 / 5-3
L L L L W
Last 5
L L W W L
2024 season only (not a rolling window) · 17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
NODAL
-0.043
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.089
0.034
EPA / play allowed
0.080
219
Pass yards / game
241
115
Rush yards / game
100
253
Pass yards allowed
238
141
Rush yards allowed
137
0.8 / 1.5
Turnovers / takeaways
1.4 / 1.8
2.2 / 2.3
Sacks allowed / made
2.2 / 3.0
16.4
First downs / game
17.1
59
Penalty yards / game
54
+4.6 · #13 of 49
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−0.6 · #29 of 49
2024 season to date · 17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
NODAL
5-12 · 29%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-13 · 28%
Last two seasons (2023–2024), NO 34 games, DAL 35. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
5NOseriesDAL3
Avg total points
48.0
Meetings
8
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (8 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2024NO 44 at DAL 19NO
2021DAL 27 at NO 17DAL
2019DAL 10 at NO 12NO
2018NO 10 at DAL 13DAL
2015DAL 20 at NO 26NO
2014NO 17 at DAL 38DAL
2013DAL 17 at NO 49NO
2012NO 34 at DAL 31NO
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Alvin KamaraRB8917.2%
Juwan JohnsonTE6612.8%
Chris OlaveWR448.5%
Foster MoreauTE438.3%
Rashid ShaheedWR417.9%
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR356.8%
Taysom HillTE316.0%
Dante PettisWR285.4%
Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR275.2%
Mason TiptonWR265.0%
Kevin Austin Jr.WR224.3%
Jordan MimsRB183.5%
Bub MeansWR152.9%
Jamaal WilliamsRB112.1%
Kendre MillerRB81.5%
Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB51.0%
Dallin HolkerTE40.8%
Adam PrenticeFB40.8%
CeeDee LambWR15224.6%
Jake FergusonTE8613.9%
Jalen TolbertWR7912.8%
Brandin CooksWR548.7%
KaVontae TurpinWR528.4%
Rico DowdleRB497.9%
Luke SchoonmakerTE365.8%
Jalen BrooksWR304.8%
Hunter LuepkeRB162.6%
Jonathan MingoWR162.6%
Ezekiel ElliottRB152.4%
Ryan FlournoyWR142.3%
Brevyn Spann-FordTE142.3%
Deuce VaughnRB50.8%
Dalvin CookRB10.2%
New Orleans Saints2024–25 seasons
Dallas Cowboys2024–25 seasons
