Mavericks at Pacers: NBA, Oct 23, 2026

Model pick: Pacers (68%), locked Oct 23; Mavericks won 121–105 (graded a miss).

Dallas Mavericks

Indiana Pacers

121–105

Final

Win probability

DAL 32%

68% IND

Dallas Mavericks won, 121–105. The pick was Indiana Pacers at 68% — incorrect.

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Margin the probability implies

IND by 4.7

IND win probability

68%

Right at this confidence

9 of 14

Too early to read: 14 graded at 60–70%

Winner picks only. Where books price a game, the win probability follows the market's no-vig price; the team ratings decide games nobody has priced. The ratings alone were tested on games they were not tuned on, and every pick is locked before tip-off and graded after the final, in the public record. How the model works →

Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.