Timberwolves at Heat: NBA, Oct 21, 2026

Model pick: Heat (52%), locked Oct 21; Timberwolves won 131–106 (graded a miss).

Minnesota Timberwolves

Miami Heat

131–106

Final

Win probability

MIN 48%

52% MIA

Minnesota Timberwolves won, 131–106. The pick was Miami Heat at 52% — incorrect.

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Margin the probability implies

MIA by 0.5

MIA win probability

52%

Right at this confidence

13 of 23

Too early to read: 23 graded at 50–60%

Winner picks only. Where books price a game, the win probability follows the market's no-vig price; the team ratings decide games nobody has priced. The ratings alone were tested on games they were not tuned on, and every pick is locked before tip-off and graded after the final, in the public record. How the model works →

Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.