Massachusetts vs Toledo: model prediction (Pro)
Massachusetts team pageToledo team page
7:30 PM ET
Massachusetts and Toledo meet on Nov 11, 2026 at Glass Bowl (college football week 11). The sportsbooks give Massachusetts a 17% chance and Toledo a 83% chance, margin removed. The model's winner call for this game, locked before the start and graded in public, is part of Pro; the model's record is always free.
The market's win chance
The sportsbooks' no-vig chance for each side, from 5 books. This is the market's number, free on the data page; it is not the model's call.
The road team is on the left, the home team on the right.
The model against the market
The model rates every team from each game's result and margin, adjusted for the opponent and home field. Its winner call is anchored to the betting market's price when there is one, with the model's own rating mixed in, so the call and the market's favorite usually agree. Pro adds the model's own number, its predicted score and margin, the read behind them and where each sits against the market.
The model's read on Massachusetts Minutemen at Toledo Rockets
ProStart 7-day free trialThe model's winner call
Who it picks, and the probability behind it
Predicted score and margin
The model's score for both teams against the market
The read
The matchups behind the call, in plain English
What moved the call
Passing, rushing, quarterback and rest, side by side
Share card
A one-tap image of the pick for your group chat
The market's numbers on this game
These are the sportsbooks' lines, free. Pro adds the model's call beside them. Its track record is always free: see the record.
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
The market is on 14, a number 4.1% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.2%), 14 (4.1%).
The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
Where the sportsbooks' numbers sit against how games have finished. Pro adds the model's number on these same charts.
How the line moved
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. A record of prices, not a pick.
- Mon, Nov 9, 1:49 AM first big move: TOL -14 → TOL -14.5
- No books followed within six hours
- Retail was still TOL -14.5 at that point
- Mon, Nov 9, 10:10 AM first big move: 53 → 52.5
- No books followed within six hours
- Retail was still 52.5 at that point
Model reads, not personalized advice. Data and analytics only, not betting advice: any bet is your own decision, and we are not responsible for losses. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.