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Ohio at Miami (OH): College Football Week 11, Nov 10, 2026

Game data

Model pick: Ohio (52%), locked Nov 10; Miami (OH) won 34–17 (graded a miss).

FinalTue, Nov 10Yager Stadium45° · 11 mph wind · 97% precipConference game
Ohio Bobcats7-3
17
Miami (OH) RedHawks6-4
34
OHIO spread
-1.5
open M-OH -1.5
Total
47.5
open 48.5 ▼
OHIO ML
-118
M-OH ML
-102

Closing line · 5 books · best OHIO −113 FanDuel · M-OH +100 Hard Rock

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4T
OHIO7100017
M-OH0772034

The model's call

Locked before kickoff
52%Ohio Bobcats✗ Miss

Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Ohio Bobcats 57%.

Model's scoreContext for reading the game: the model makes no spread or over/under pick, and neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
OHIO 27 · M-OH 24
OHIO by 2.9, total 50.1
Market's numbers
OHIO -1.5 · 47.5
Spread and total
Right at this confidence
60%
Won 82 of 137 called at 50–60%

Reading this gameHow the two sides match up, area by area, and how clearly. This is context for reading the game: a priced game's win chance is built on the market's number, and the model's own read comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather.

  • Home field is with M-OH, which the pick has to overcome.
Passing game
OHIO
Slight advantage
OHIO passing ranks #62, M-OH defends it at #85; the other way M-OH #75 into OHIO's #59.
Rushing game
M-OH
Slight advantage
M-OH rushing ranks #22, OHIO defends it at #79; the other way OHIO #39 into M-OH's #44.
Third down & red zone
OHIO
Clear advantage
OHIO third-down conversion ranks #37, M-OH defends it at #70; the other way M-OH #116 into OHIO's #56.
Big plays
M-OH
Clear advantage
M-OH rush explosiveness ranks #23, OHIO defends it at #98; the other way OHIO #77 into M-OH's #50.
Pass protection & rush
OHIO
Clear advantage
OHIO sack rate ranks #91, M-OH defends it at #97; the other way M-OH #125 into OHIO's #63.
Ball security
M-OH
Clear advantage
M-OH turnovers / game ranks #24, OHIO defends it at #111; the other way OHIO #76 into M-OH's #68.
Form (last 5)
OHIO
Slight advantage
M-OH +7.2 per game over the last five, OHIO +10.6.

Where the lines sit

3,455 FBS games since 2023

Where the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.

Marginmarket OHIO by 1.5 · model OHIO by 2.9
Mkt OHIO 1.5
Model OHIO 2.9
← OHIO by 28tieM-OH by 28 →

1.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.2%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 47.5 · model 50.1
Mkt 47.5
Model 50.1
24 pts6096 pts

7.1% of FBS games finish between 47.5 and 50.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.

How the line moved

Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. A record of prices, not a pick.

Spread
Moved toward OHIO
Opened
M-OH -1.5
Market maker now
OHIO -1
▼ 0.8 since open
Retail now
OHIO -1.25
in line
17 moves8 books3 led
  1. Sun, Nov 8, 10:11 PM first big move: M-OH -1 → OHIO -1
  2. No books followed within six hours
  3. Retail was still M-OH -1.5 at that point
Total
Moved toward the under
Opened
48.5
Market maker now
47.5
▼ 0.8 since open
Retail now
47.5
in line
23 moves8 books9 led
  1. Mon, Nov 9, 4:49 PM first big move: 48.5 → 47.5
  2. 6 books followed within six hours
  3. Retail was still 48.5 at that point
Save imageSquare

The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. Data and analytics only, not betting advice: any bet is your own decision, and we are not responsible for losses. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links are plain links, not affiliate links: no sportsbook pays us.