The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
87%Ohio BobcatsStrong✓
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Ohio Bobcats 89%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
OHIO by 21.4market OHIO by 17.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
47.0 pointsmarket 46.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Ohio Bobcats at 87% to win, with the market at OHIO by 17.5.
OHIO has the advantage in rushing: OHIO rushing ranks #33, SAC defends it at #94; the other way SAC #137 into OHIO's #74.
OHIO has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: OHIO third-down conversion ranks #17, SAC defends it at #101; the other way SAC #122 into OHIO's #76.
Form: OHIO has the better last five games by 45.8 points a game (SAC -27.2, OHIO +18.6).
Home field is with SAC, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it OHIO by 21.4 against a market OHIO by 17.5: 3.9 points of daylight in OHIO's favour. The model's total is 47.0 against a line of 46.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model OHIO by 21.4 · market OHIO by 17.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
OHIO
Clear advantage
OHIO passing ranks #59, SAC defends it at #123; the other way SAC #128 into OHIO's #90.
Rushing game
OHIO
Clear advantage
OHIO rushing ranks #33, SAC defends it at #94; the other way SAC #137 into OHIO's #74.
Third down & red zone
OHIO
Clear advantage
OHIO third-down conversion ranks #17, SAC defends it at #101; the other way SAC #122 into OHIO's #76.
Big plays
OHIO
Clear advantage
OHIO pass explosiveness ranks #102, SAC defends it at #109; the other way SAC #134 into OHIO's #50.
Pass protection & rush
OHIO
Slight advantage
OHIO sack rate ranks #87, SAC defends it at #119; the other way SAC #76 into OHIO's #59.
Ball security
OHIO
Clear advantage
OHIO turnovers / game ranks #71, SAC defends it at #129; the other way SAC #126 into OHIO's #122.
Form (last 5)
OHIO
Clear advantage
SAC −27.2 per game over the last five, OHIO +18.6.
Market
OHIO
Clear advantage
Consensus has OHIO by 17.5; the model says OHIO by 21.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,332 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket OHIO by 17.5 · model OHIO by 21.4
Mkt OHIO 17.5
Model OHIO 21.4
← OHIO by 28tieSAC by 28 →
3.4% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 46.5 · model 47.0
Mkt 46.5
Model 47.0
24 pts6096 pts
2.1% of FBS games finish between 46.5 and 47.0. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: OHIOModel agrees
Opened
OHIO -14.5
→
Market maker now
OHIO -18
▼ 3.5 since open
→
Retail now
OHIO -17.5
0.5 behind
37 moves7 books8 ledSteam Sat, Oct 17, 6:10 PM
Fri, Oct 16, 10:00 PM first sharp move: OHIO -14.5 → OHIO -15.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still OHIO -15.5 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the underModel disagrees
Opened
48.8
→
Market maker now
46.5
▼ 2.5 since open
→
Retail now
46.5
in line
24 moves7 books8 ledSteam Fri, Oct 16, 10:00 PM
Wed, Oct 14, 10:10 AM first sharp move: 49 → 48.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 48.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
