The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
90%Toledo RocketsStrong✓
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Toledo Rockets 89%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TOL by 20.8market TOL by 20.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
59.0 pointsmarket 52.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Toledo Rockets at 90% to win, with the market at TOL by 20.5.
TOL has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: TOL third-down conversion ranks #25, BALL defends it at #125; the other way BALL #130 into TOL's #59.
TOL has the advantage in rushing: TOL rushing ranks #59, BALL defends it at #124; the other way BALL #100 into TOL's #34.
Form: TOL has the better last five games by 35.4 points a game (BALL -18.6, TOL +16.8).
Home field is with BALL, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it TOL by 20.8 against a market TOL by 20.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 59.0 against a line of 52.5: 6.5 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TOL by 20.8 · market TOL by 20.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
TOL
Clear advantage
TOL passing ranks #33, BALL defends it at #115; the other way BALL #76 into TOL's #92.
Rushing game
TOL
Clear advantage
TOL rushing ranks #59, BALL defends it at #124; the other way BALL #100 into TOL's #34.
Third down & red zone
TOL
Clear advantage
TOL third-down conversion ranks #25, BALL defends it at #125; the other way BALL #130 into TOL's #59.
Big plays
=
Even
TOL pass explosiveness ranks #7, BALL defends it at #91; the other way BALL #50 into TOL's #98.
Pass protection & rush
TOL
Clear advantage
TOL sack rate ranks #4, BALL defends it at #125; the other way BALL #72 into TOL's #87.
Ball security
TOL
Slight advantage
TOL turnovers / game ranks #31, BALL defends it at #105; the other way BALL #52 into TOL's #69.
Form (last 5)
TOL
Clear advantage
BALL −18.6 per game over the last five, TOL +16.8.
Market
TOL
Clear advantage
Consensus has TOL by 20.5; the model says TOL by 20.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TOL by 20.5 · model TOL by 20.8
Mkt TOL 20.5
Model TOL 20.8
← TOL by 28tieBALL by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 52.5 · model 59.0
Mkt 52.5
Model 59.0
24 pts6096 pts
13.2% of FBS games finish between 52.5 and 59.0. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: TOLModel agrees
Opened
TOL -17.5
→
Market maker now
TOL -21
▼ 1.3 since open
→
Retail now
TOL -20.75
in line
24 moves8 books0 led
Mon, Sep 28, 10:10 AM first sharp move: TOL -20 → TOL -18.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still TOL -19.5 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the overModel agrees
Opened
51.5
→
Market maker now
52.8
▲ 1 since open
→
Retail now
52.5
in line
22 moves8 books5 led
Tue, Sep 29, 1:49 PM first sharp move: 51.5 → 52
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 51.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
