The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
81%Miami HurricanesStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MIA by 14.9market MIA by 24.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
46.9 pointsmarket 46.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Miami Hurricanes at 81% to win, with the market at MIA by 24.5.
MIA has the advantage in rushing: MIA rushing ranks #19, STAN defends it at #135; the other way STAN #96 into MIA's #3.
MIA has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: MIA third-down conversion ranks #5, STAN defends it at #132; the other way STAN #112 into MIA's #34.
Form: MIA has the better last five games by 39.0 points a game (STAN -13.6, MIA +25.4).
Home field is with STAN, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it MIA by 14.9 against a market MIA by 24.5: 9.6 points of daylight in STAN's favour. The model's total is 46.9 against a line of 46.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MIA by 14.9 · market MIA by 24.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
MIA
Clear advantage
MIA passing ranks #1, STAN defends it at #118; the other way STAN #49 into MIA's #71.
Rushing game
MIA
Clear advantage
MIA rushing ranks #19, STAN defends it at #135; the other way STAN #96 into MIA's #3.
Third down & red zone
MIA
Clear advantage
MIA third-down conversion ranks #5, STAN defends it at #132; the other way STAN #112 into MIA's #34.
Big plays
MIA
Clear advantage
MIA rush explosiveness ranks #75, STAN defends it at #133; the other way STAN #91 into MIA's #9.
Pass protection & rush
MIA
Clear advantage
MIA sack rate ranks #35, STAN defends it at #131; the other way STAN #41 into MIA's #30.
Ball security
MIA
Slight advantage
MIA turnovers / game ranks #13, STAN defends it at #105; the other way STAN #23 into MIA's #62.
Form (last 5)
MIA
Clear advantage
STAN −13.6 per game over the last five, MIA +25.4.
Market
MIA
Clear advantage
Consensus has MIA by 24.5; the model says MIA by 14.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,332 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket MIA by 24.5 · model MIA by 14.9
Mkt MIA 24.5
Model MIA 14.9
← MIA by 28tieSTAN by 28 →
7.6% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 46.5 · model 46.9
Mkt 46.5
Model 46.9
24 pts6096 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
