The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
62%Sacramento State HornetsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SAC by 5.4market EMU by 9.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
56.6 pointsmarket 52.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Sacramento State Hornets at 62% to win, with the market at EMU by 9.5.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours EMU. EMU turnovers / game ranks #66, SAC defends it at #129; the other way SAC #126 into EMU's #67. The pick still lands on SAC because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: EMU has the better last five games by 32.8 points a game (EMU +5.6, SAC -27.2).
Home field is with EMU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it SAC by 5.4 against a market EMU by 9.5: 14.9 points of daylight in SAC's favour. The model's total is 56.6 against a line of 52.5: 4.1 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SAC by 5.4 · market EMU by 9.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor EMU, but the model still picks SAC. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
EMU
Slight advantage
EMU passing ranks #105, SAC defends it at #122; the other way SAC #128 into EMU's #108.
Rushing game
EMU
Clear advantage
EMU rushing ranks #101, SAC defends it at #95; the other way SAC #137 into EMU's #30.
Third down & red zone
EMU
Clear advantage
EMU points / scoring opportunity ranks #80, SAC defends it at #119; the other way SAC #130 into EMU's #53.
Big plays
EMU
Clear advantage
EMU rush explosiveness ranks #89, SAC defends it at #115; the other way SAC #132 into EMU's #37.
Pass protection & rush
EMU
Slight advantage
EMU sack rate ranks #51, SAC defends it at #120; the other way SAC #76 into EMU's #108.
Ball security
EMU
Clear advantage
EMU turnovers / game ranks #66, SAC defends it at #129; the other way SAC #126 into EMU's #67.
Form (last 5)
EMU
Clear advantage
EMU +5.6 per game over the last five, SAC −27.2.
Market
EMU
Clear advantage
Consensus has EMU by 9.5; the model says SAC by 5.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,330 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket EMU by 9.5 · model SAC by 5.4
Mkt EMU 9.5
Model SAC 5.4
← SAC by 28tieEMU by 28 →
29.1% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 52.5 · model 56.6
Mkt 52.5
Model 56.6
24 pts6096 pts
8.4% of FBS games finish between 52.5 and 56.6. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
