The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
64%North Dakota State BisonSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NDSU by 6.1market NDSU by 6.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
53.7 pointsmarket 46.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has North Dakota State Bison at 64% to win, with the market at NDSU by 6.5.
NDSU has the advantage in rushing: NDSU rushing ranks #95, JVST defends it at #97; the other way JVST #81 into NDSU's #13.
NDSU has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: NDSU points / scoring opportunity ranks #79, JVST defends it at #78; the other way JVST #88 into NDSU's #1.
Form: NDSU has the better last five games by 7.2 points a game (NDSU +10.4, JVST +3.2).
Home field is with NDSU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it NDSU by 6.1 against a market NDSU by 6.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 53.7 against a line of 46.5: 7.2 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NDSU by 6.1 · market NDSU by 6.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
NDSU passing ranks #78, JVST defends it at #51; the other way JVST #37 into NDSU's #1.
Rushing game
NDSU
Clear advantage
NDSU rushing ranks #95, JVST defends it at #97; the other way JVST #81 into NDSU's #13.
Third down & red zone
NDSU
Clear advantage
NDSU points / scoring opportunity ranks #79, JVST defends it at #78; the other way JVST #88 into NDSU's #1.
Big plays
NDSU
Slight advantage
NDSU rush explosiveness ranks #43, JVST defends it at #38; the other way JVST #78 into NDSU's #35.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
JVST sack rate ranks #13, NDSU defends it at #73; the other way NDSU #49 into JVST's #101.
Ball security
NDSU
Clear advantage
NDSU turnovers / game ranks #50, JVST defends it at #112; the other way JVST #95 into NDSU's #12.
Form (last 5)
NDSU
Clear advantage
NDSU +10.4 per game over the last five, JVST +3.2.
Market
NDSU
Clear advantage
Consensus has NDSU by 6.5; the model says NDSU by 6.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,330 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket NDSU by 6.5 · model NDSU by 6.1
Mkt NDSU 6.5
Model NDSU 6.1
← JVST by 28tieNDSU by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 46.5 · model 53.7
Mkt 46.5
Model 53.7
24 pts6096 pts
16.5% of FBS games finish between 46.5 and 53.7. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
