The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
58%USC TrojansLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
USC by 3.3market USC by 4.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
56.5 pointsmarket 56.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has USC Trojans at 58% to win, with the market at USC by 4.5.
USC has the advantage in passing: USC passing ranks #3, TCU defends it at #91; the other way TCU #18 into USC's #38.
USC has the advantage in big plays: USC rush explosiveness ranks #70, TCU defends it at #36; the other way TCU #119 into USC's #10.
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it USC by 3.3 against a market USC by 4.5: 1.2 points of daylight in TCU's favour. The model's total is 56.5 against a line of 56.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model USC by 3.3 · market USC by 4.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
USC
Clear advantage
USC passing ranks #3, TCU defends it at #91; the other way TCU #18 into USC's #38.
Rushing game
=
Even
USC rushing ranks #37, TCU defends it at #40; the other way TCU #84 into USC's #84.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
USC points / scoring opportunity ranks #10, TCU defends it at #54; the other way TCU #34 into USC's #56.
Big plays
USC
Slight advantage
USC rush explosiveness ranks #70, TCU defends it at #36; the other way TCU #119 into USC's #10.
Pass protection & rush
USC
Clear advantage
USC sack rate ranks #4, TCU defends it at #82; the other way TCU #38 into USC's #37.
Ball security
=
Even
USC turnovers / game ranks #66, TCU defends it at #33; the other way TCU #103 into USC's #55.
Form (last 5)
USC
Clear advantage
TCU −1.2 per game over the last five, USC +5.4.
Market
USC
Clear advantage
Consensus has USC by 4.5; the model says USC by 3.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket USC by 4.5 · model USC by 3.3
Mkt USC 4.5
Model USC 3.3
← USC by 28tieTCU by 28 →
1.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 56.5 · model 56.5
Mkt 56.5
Model 56.5
24 pts6096 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
