Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playAlamodomeStadium scoring factor 106 (31th of 134, 100 = league average) · 57 points a game in 22 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 60.2 points vs 53.7 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
advanced stats (garbage time excluded) and play-by-play · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 135
ranks betterranks worseStronger27+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 135 (#1 = best)
USC offensevsTCU defense
USC offense ranks better in 5 of 6 matchups (4 by a clear margin) · TCU defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 88 places
+0.48
#3Stronger
+0.22
#91
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.15
#37slight
+0.01
#40
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 71 places
51%
#5Stronger
40%
#76
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
4.66
#10Stronger
3.49
#54
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
13.2%
#33Stronger
14.9%
#89
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.23
#66
1.62
Stronger#33
TCU offensevsUSC defense
TCU offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · USC defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin) · 1 even
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.35
#18slight
+0.09
#38
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.· even
+0.04
#84
+0.09
#84
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 66 places
47%
#14Stronger
40%
#80
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
4.14
#34slight
3.53
#56
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
15.3%
#66
15.9%
slight#63
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.54
#103
1.38
Stronger#55
Every measure, ranked
29 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 135 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
USC offenseTCU defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.favors USC
+0.48#3
+0.22#91▲
Pass success ratefavors USC
52%#4
43%#86
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.favors USC
1.63#36
1.65#110
Yards / pass attemptfavors USC
9.2#8
7.5#95
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.favors USC
14.5%#8
10.7%#93▲
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors USC
Points in the 1st half:USC scores 49% · allows 48%TCU scores 55% · allows 49%league 52%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 5–6 in 2026, 11–12 in 2025
USCTCUsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 15.1 scored
League 38% pass
USC8 games
Scored17.1
Allowed13.9
Pass share41%
36–47% · 233 plays
TCU8 games
Scored16.0
Allowed10.5
Pass share43%
35–50% · 263 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 13.2 scored
League 46% pass
USC4 games
Scored16.0
Allowed16.0
Pass share60%
54–65% · 124 plays
TCU6 games
Scored10.2
Allowed10.2
Pass share56%
49–64% · 200 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.2 scored
League 52% pass
USC5 games
Scored16.2
Allowed8.8
Pass share50%
42–58% · 159 plays
TCU3 games
Scored9.0
Allowed17.0
Pass share58%
37–79% · 95 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (a sack counts as a carry, as college stats score it; a few plays whose names could not be matched are missing). The range counts games, not plays. League = every tracked college team's last 17 games (138 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 5–6 in 2026, 11–12 in 2025
USCat the half: led 8 · within 3 in 4 · trailed 5 (of 17)
5.6
4.5Q1
10.6
7.3Q2
16.2scored11.8allowedleague 14.6
1st half
8.5
5.8Q3
7.9
6.7Q4
TCUat the half: led 8 · within 3 in 6 · trailed 3 (of 17)
6.1
3.1Q1
9.3
7.8Q2
15.4scored10.9allowedleague 14.6
1st half
4.5
4.0Q3
7.9
7.4Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 6.1 · Q2 8.5 · Q3 6.0 · Q4 7.0
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
USCTCU
9-4
Record
9-4
35.8
Points for / game
30.7
23.0
Points against / game
25.3
7-0 / 2-4
Home / road
6-1 / 3-3
L W L W W
Last 5
W W W L L
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 13 games each.
AdvancedEfficiency and talent measures for both teams; green marks the better side.◷History
USCTCU
—
Team rating (this season)Points better (+) or worse (−) than an average team.
+8.3
0.280
Offense points added / playPoints the offense adds per play, garbage time excluded.
0.168
0.084
Defense points added / playPoints added per play the defense allows; lower is better.
0.082
49% / 45%
Success rate (off / def)
44% / 40%
1.32 / 1.15
Explosiveness (off / def)
1.28 / 1.29
—
Talent compositeRoster talent rating from recruiting; higher = more talent.
745
—
Returning production
57%
2025 season to date, garbage time excluded.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
USCTCU
1-4 · 20%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
3-3 · 50%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), USC 26 games, TCU 26. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2023Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
0USCseriesTCU1
Avg total points
57.0
Meetings
1
They meet only some seasons (1 of the 4 in our history).
2025USC 27 vs TCU 30PlayoffsTCU
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
