The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
62%LSU TigersSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LSU by 5.4market HOU by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
38.9 pointsmarket 43.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has LSU Tigers at 62% to win, with the market at HOU by 1.5.
LSU has the advantage in rushing: LSU rushing ranks #118, HOU defends it at #48; the other way HOU #125 into LSU's #22.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours HOU. HOU sack rate ranks #30, LSU defends it at #77; the other way LSU #83 into HOU's #50. The pick still lands on LSU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it LSU by 5.4 against a market HOU by 1.5: 6.9 points of daylight in LSU's favour. The model's total is 38.9 against a line of 43.5: 4.6 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LSU by 5.4 · market HOU by 1.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor HOU, but the model still picks LSU. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
HOU passing ranks #42, LSU defends it at #26; the other way LSU #70 into HOU's #54.
Rushing game
LSU
Slight advantage
LSU rushing ranks #118, HOU defends it at #48; the other way HOU #125 into LSU's #22.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
LSU points / scoring opportunity ranks #103, HOU defends it at #94; the other way HOU #83 into LSU's #32.
Big plays
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU pass explosiveness ranks #16, LSU defends it at #70; the other way LSU #108 into HOU's #52.
Pass protection & rush
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU sack rate ranks #30, LSU defends it at #77; the other way LSU #83 into HOU's #50.
Ball security
=
Even
LSU turnovers / game ranks #43, HOU defends it at #51; the other way HOU #39 into LSU's #32.
Form (last 5)
HOU
Slight advantage
HOU 0.0 per game over the last five, LSU −2.8.
Market
HOU
Slight advantage
Consensus has HOU by 1.5; the model says LSU by 5.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket HOU by 1.5 · model LSU by 5.4
Mkt HOU 1.5
Model LSU 5.4
← LSU by 28tieHOU by 28 →
10.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 43.5 · model 38.9
Mkt 43.5
Model 38.9
24 pts6096 pts
8.9% of FBS games finish between 43.5 and 38.9. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
