Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playNRG StadiumStadium scoring factor 89 (121th of 134, 100 = league average) · 47.6 points a game in 22 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 60.2 points vs 53.7 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
advanced stats (garbage time excluded) and play-by-play · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 135
ranks betterranks worseStronger27+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 135 (#1 = best)
LSU offensevsHOU defense
LSU offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups · HOU defense in 5 (3 by a clear margin)
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.16
#70
+0.12
slight#54
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 70 places
−0.03
#118
+0.03
Stronger#48
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 56 places
37%
#97
36%
Stronger#41
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
3.35
#103
3.91
slight#94
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
17.9%
#113
16.2%
Stronger#57
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.08
#43slight
1.38
#51
HOU offensevsLSU defense
HOU offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups · LSU defense in 5 (3 by a clear margin)
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.26
#42
+0.06
slight#26
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 103 places
−0.05
#125
−0.03
Stronger#22
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
41%
#57
34%
Stronger#28
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
3.55
#83
3.25
Stronger#32
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
13.4%
#37slight
17.0%
#40
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.08
#39
1.62
slight#32
Every measure, ranked
29 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 135 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
LSU offenseHOU defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.
+0.16#70▼
+0.12#54▲
Pass success ratefavors HOU
41%#82
38%#35
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.favors HOU
1.44#108
1.52#52
Yards / pass attemptfavors HOU
6.7#94
7.1#64
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.favors HOU
7.2%#124
10.3%#79▲
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors HOU
Points in the 1st half:LSU scores 49% · allows 49%HOU scores 53% · allows 52%league 52%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 5 in 2026, 12 in 2025
LSUHOUsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 15.1 scored
League 38% pass
LSU7 games
Scored16.6
Allowed11.9
Pass share49%
45–53% · 270 plays
HOU9 games
Scored17.1
Allowed12.4
Pass share33%
28–39% · 315 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 13.2 scored
League 46% pass
LSU5 games
Scored13.8
Allowed6.4
Pass share47%
43–51% · 139 plays
HOU3 games
Scored14.3
Allowed14.7
Pass share41%
26–57% · 102 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.2 scored
League 52% pass
LSU5 games
Scored13.4
Allowed9.8
Pass share55%
45–65% · 145 plays
HOU5 games
Scored12.8
Allowed6.6
Pass share46%
33–59% · 159 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (a sack counts as a carry, as college stats score it; a few plays whose names could not be matched are missing). The range counts games, not plays. League = every tracked college team's last 17 games (138 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 5 in 2026, 12 in 2025
LSUat the half: led 7 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 5 (of 17)
5.6
4.5Q1
8.8
4.9Q2
14.5scored9.4allowedleague 14.6
1st half
8.1
4.9Q3
6.7
4.7Q4
HOUat the half: led 9 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 5 (of 17)
7.2
6.0Q1
10.2
6.2Q2
17.4scored12.2allowedleague 14.6
1st half
8.1
3.5Q3
7.1
7.6Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 6.1 · Q2 8.5 · Q3 6.0 · Q4 7.0
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
LSUHOU
7-6
Record
10-3
22.8
Points for / game
29.1
19.8
Points against / game
22.8
6-1 / 1-5
Home / road
4-3 / 6-0
L L W W L
Last 5
W W L W L
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 13 games each.
AdvancedEfficiency and talent measures for both teams; green marks the better side.◷History
LSUHOU
+10.3
Team rating (this season)Points better (+) or worse (−) than an average team.
+7.4
0.031
Offense points added / playPoints the offense adds per play, garbage time excluded.
0.068
-0.005
Defense points added / playPoints added per play the defense allows; lower is better.
0.045
39% / 39%
Success rate (off / def)
42% / 42%
1.19 / 1.24
Explosiveness (off / def)
1.21 / 1.12
920
Talent compositeRoster talent rating from recruiting; higher = more talent.
657
66%
Returning production
68%
2025 season to date, garbage time excluded.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
LSUHOU
3-8 · 27%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
7-9 · 44%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), LSU 26 games, HOU 25. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2023Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
0LSUseriesHOU1
Avg total points
73.0
Meetings
1
They meet only some seasons (1 of the 4 in our history).
2025LSU 35 vs HOU 38PlayoffsHOU
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
