The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
54%Texas Tech Red RaidersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TTU by 1.7market TTU by 12.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
53.3 pointsmarket 50.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Texas Tech Red Raiders at 54% to win, with the market at TTU by 12.5.
TTU has the advantage in big plays: TTU rush explosiveness ranks #14, BYU defends it at #81; the other way BYU #71 into TTU's #1.
TTU has the advantage in passing: TTU passing ranks #39, BYU defends it at #45; the other way BYU #63 into TTU's #1.
Form: TTU has the better last five games by 14.8 points a game (TTU +22.8, BYU +8.0).
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it TTU by 1.7 against a market TTU by 12.5: 10.8 points of daylight in BYU's favour. The model's total is 53.3 against a line of 50.5: 2.8 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TTU by 1.7 · market TTU by 12.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
TTU
Clear advantage
TTU passing ranks #39, BYU defends it at #45; the other way BYU #63 into TTU's #1.
Rushing game
TTU
Slight advantage
TTU rushing ranks #41, BYU defends it at #54; the other way BYU #25 into TTU's #1.
Third down & red zone
TTU
Slight advantage
TTU third-down conversion ranks #12, BYU defends it at #20; the other way BYU #49 into TTU's #7.
Big plays
TTU
Clear advantage
TTU rush explosiveness ranks #14, BYU defends it at #81; the other way BYU #71 into TTU's #1.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
BYU sack rate ranks #6, TTU defends it at #56; the other way TTU #39 into BYU's #68.
Ball security
=
Even
BYU turnovers / game ranks #48, TTU defends it at #2; the other way TTU #72 into BYU's #21.
Form (last 5)
TTU
Clear advantage
TTU +22.8 per game over the last five, BYU +8.0.
Market
TTU
Clear advantage
Consensus has TTU by 12.5; the model says TTU by 1.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TTU by 12.5 · model TTU by 1.7
Mkt TTU 12.5
Model TTU 1.7
← BYU by 28tieTTU by 28 →
22.2% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7 and 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 50.5 · model 53.3
Mkt 50.5
Model 53.3
24 pts6096 pts
7.3% of FBS games finish between 50.5 and 53.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
