The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
60%Maryland TerrapinsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MD by 4.4market MSU by 4
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
49.6 pointsmarket 49.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Maryland Terrapins at 60% to win, with the market at MSU by 4.
MD has the advantage in passing: MD passing ranks #72, MSU defends it at #101; the other way MSU #79 into MD's #25.
Form: MSU has the better last five games by 17.6 points a game (MSU -5.0, MD -22.6).
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it MD by 4.4 against a market MSU by 4: 8.4 points of daylight in MD's favour. The model's total is 49.6 against a line of 49.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MD by 4.4 · market MSU by 4
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
MD
Clear advantage
MD passing ranks #72, MSU defends it at #101; the other way MSU #79 into MD's #25.
Rushing game
=
Even
MD rushing ranks #93, MSU defends it at #106; the other way MSU #94 into MD's #89.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
MD third-down conversion ranks #99, MSU defends it at #101; the other way MSU #110 into MD's #102.
Big plays
=
Even
MD rush explosiveness ranks #44, MSU defends it at #50; the other way MSU #66 into MD's #35.
Pass protection & rush
MD
Clear advantage
MD sack rate ranks #2, MSU defends it at #71; the other way MSU #108 into MD's #66.
Ball security
MD
Clear advantage
MD turnovers / game ranks #60, MSU defends it at #126; the other way MSU #31 into MD's #20.
Form (last 5)
MSU
Clear advantage
MSU −5.0 per game over the last five, MD −22.6.
Market
MSU
Clear advantage
Consensus has MSU by 4; the model says MD by 4.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket MSU by 4 · model MD by 4.4
Mkt MSU 4
Model MD 4.4
← MD by 28tieMSU by 28 →
16.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 4, a number 3.4% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 49.5 · model 49.6
Mkt 49.5
Model 49.6
24 pts6096 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
