Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playFord FieldStadium scoring factor 87 (123th of 134, 100 = league average) · 47 points a game in 23 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 60.2 points vs 53.7 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
advanced stats (garbage time excluded) and play-by-play · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 135
ranks betterranks worseStronger27+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 135 (#1 = best)
MD offensevsMSU defense
MD offense ranks better in 5 of 6 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · MSU defense in 1
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.15
#72Stronger
+0.26
#101
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.01
#93slight
+0.14
#106
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
37%
#99slight
42%
#101
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
3.39
#99
3.91
slight#93
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.Widest gap · 59 places
14.2%
#51Stronger
13.5%
#110
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 66 places
1.17
#60Stronger
0.75
#126
MSU offensevsMD defense
MSU offense ranks better in 0 of 6 matchups · MD defense in 6 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 54 places
+0.14
#79
+0.05
Stronger#25
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.01
#94
+0.10
slight#89
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
35%
#110
42%
slight#102
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
3.75
#63
3.60
slight#62
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
18.0%
#114
14.1%
slight#103
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.00
#31
1.75
slight#20
Every measure, ranked
29 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 135 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
MD offenseMSU defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.favors MD
+0.15#72
+0.26#101
Pass success rate
41%#78
44%#103
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.favors MSU
1.48#99
1.47#35
Yards / pass attempt
6.2#121
7.6#100
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.favors MSU
7.7%#118▼
9.4%#52
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors MD
1.8%#2▲
5.6%#71
Completion %
58%#112
66%#115
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
3.9%#118▼
1.6%#111▼
MSU offenseMD defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.favors MD
+0.14#79▼
+0.05#25▲
Pass success rate
42%#67
43%#81
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.favors MD
1.44#111
1.56#74
Yards / pass attempt
7.1#75▼
7.1#67
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.favors MD
7.7%#119▼
10.0%#70
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors MD
Points in the 1st half:MD scores 61% · allows 48%MSU scores 48% · allows 49%league 52%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 5 in 2026, 12 in 2025
MDMSUsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 15.1 scored
League 38% pass
MD7 games
Scored12.7
Allowed9.1
Pass share52%
42–62% · 226 plays
MSU5 games
Scored14.4
Allowed10.8
Pass share38%
29–46% · 160 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 13.2 scored
League 46% pass
MD0 games
None in the last 17.
MSU1 game · small sample
Scored13.0
Allowed21.0
Pass share55%
38 plays · too few games for a range
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.2 scored
League 52% pass
MD10 games
Scored8.1
Allowed18.2
Pass share65%
59–71% · 300 plays
MSU11 games
Scored10.5
Allowed15.1
Pass share50%
44–56% · 339 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (a sack counts as a carry, as college stats score it; a few plays whose names could not be matched are missing). The range counts games, not plays. League = every tracked college team's last 17 games (138 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 5 in 2026, 12 in 2025
MDat the half: led 7 · within 3 in 0 · trailed 10 (of 17)
6.1
3.7Q1
9.4
9.4Q2
15.5scored13.1allowedleague 14.6
1st half
6.5
6.1Q3
3.5
8.4Q4
MSUat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 1 · trailed 11 (of 17)
4.2
6.2Q1
6.7
7.5Q2
10.9scored13.8allowedleague 14.6
1st half
5.8
6.1Q3
4.9
6.9Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 6.1 · Q2 8.5 · Q3 6.0 · Q4 7.0
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
MDMSU
4-8
Record
4-8
23.5
Points for / game
24.6
26.5
Points against / game
29.9
3-4 / 1-4
Home / road
4-3 / 0-5
L L L L L
Last 5
W L L L L
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 12 games each.
AdvancedEfficiency and talent measures for both teams; green marks the better side.◷History
MDMSU
+0.6
Team rating (this season)Points better (+) or worse (−) than an average team.
−3.4
0.084
Offense points added / playPoints the offense adds per play, garbage time excluded.
0.049
0.063
Defense points added / playPoints added per play the defense allows; lower is better.
0.163
40% / 44%
Success rate (off / def)
42% / 45%
1.32 / 1.17
Explosiveness (off / def)
1.21 / 1.18
699
Talent compositeRoster talent rating from recruiting; higher = more talent.
717
13%
Returning production
66%
2025 season to date, garbage time excluded.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
MDMSU
2-13 · 13%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
2-13 · 13%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), MD 24 games, MSU 24. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2023Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
1MDseriesMSU2
Avg total points
52.3
Meetings
3
They have met every season in our history. MSU have won the last 2.
2025MD 28 vs MSU 38MSU
2024MSU 27 at MD 24MSU
2023MD 31 at MSU 9MD
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
