RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Jan 9, 2022
Adrian Hill
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.6
≈ in line with the league average (11.4)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
94.3
≈ in line with the league average (93.9)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.3
≈ in line with the league average (9.0)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 520 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playLucas Oil Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 104 (7th of 32, 100 = league average) · 47.3 points a game in 84 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2023 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2023 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
PIT offensevsIND defense
PIT offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · IND defense in 4 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.09
#25
+0.03
slight#20
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.06
#12slight
−0.08
#16
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 13 places
38%
#21
37%
Stronger#8
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
50%
#22
56%
slight#17
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 11 places
6.1%
#14
7.9%
Stronger#3
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.94
#5Stronger
1.41
#15
IND offensevsPIT defense
IND offense ranks better in 0 of 6 matchups · PIT defense in 6 (3 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.01
#16
−0.03
Stronger#9
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.10
#18
−0.09
slight#15
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
35%
#25
39%
slight#20
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 19 places
49%
#24
47%
Stronger#5
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.4%
#15
7.2%
slight#10
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.06
#14
1.50
Stronger#7
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
PIT offenseIND defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
−0.09#25▲
+0.03#20▲
Pass success rate
43%#22
46%#22
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors IND
6.9%#24
8.4%#16▼
Yards / dropback
5.8#22
6.3#21
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
7.5
7.7
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
11%
10%
Short throws (≤5 air)
54%
49%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors IND
−0.7#21▲
−0.9#11▲
YAC / completion
5.3#14
5.2#15
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors IND
6.1%#14
7.9%#3▼
Scramble rate
4.3%
4.5%
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
1.8%#10▼
2.7%#12▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 40 · M 18 · R 42
L 36 · M 22 · R 43
IND offensePIT defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors PIT
+0.01#16▼
−0.03#9▲
Pass success ratefavors PIT
42%#24
44%#8
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors IND
7.2%#23
10.0%#30
Yards / dropback
5.9#19
6.4#22
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
7.4
7.9
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
11%
11%
Short throws (≤5 air)
55%
50%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors PIT
−3.9#30▼
−3.2#6▲
YAC / completion
5.2#18
5.3#21
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
6.4%#15▲
7.2%#10
Scramble rate
4.4%
5.3%
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
1.7%#6▼
2.7%#11▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 38 · M 22 · R 40
L 38 · M 27 · R 35
Pittsburgh Steelers · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:PIT scores 49% · allows 44%IND scores 53% · allows 51%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
PITINDsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
PIT8 games
Scored11.0
Allowed14.4
Pass share57%
50–65% · 213 plays
IND8 games
Scored13.5
Allowed11.4
Pass share47%
40–53% · 201 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
PIT3 games
Scored10.7
Allowed15.7
Pass share52%
42–63% · 94 plays
IND3 games
Scored11.7
Allowed14.3
Pass share44%
26–62% · 88 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
PIT6 games
Scored10.8
Allowed10.3
Pass share66%
62–70% · 172 plays
IND6 games
Scored10.8
Allowed12.8
Pass share63%
55–71% · 174 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
PITat the half: led 8 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 6 (of 17)
3.8
4.1Q1
6.6
6.1Q2
10.4scored10.2allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.9
3.8Q3
7.0
9.4Q4
INDat the half: led 8 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 6 (of 17)
6.0
5.3Q1
7.9
7.8Q2
13.9scored13.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.9
4.4Q3
5.8
7.5Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
PITIND
10-8
Record
9-8
17.8
Points for / game
23.3
19.7
Points against / game
24.4
5-4 / 5-4
Home / road
4-5 / 5-3
L W W W L
Last 5
L W L W L
2023 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
PITIND
-0.079
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.037
-0.039
EPA / play allowed
-0.015
203
Pass yards / game
228
118
Rush yards / game
121
243
Pass yards allowed
245
119
Rush yards allowed
124
0.9 / 1.9
Turnovers / takeaways
0.8 / 1.9
2.1 / 2.7
Sacks allowed / made
2.4 / 3.0
16.0
First downs / game
17.1
45
Penalty yards / game
40
−4.5 · #39 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−0.3 · #27 of 52
2023 season to date · 17–18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
PITIND
11-11 · 50%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-15 · 25%
Last two seasons (2022–2023), PIT 35 games, IND 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
8PITseriesIND2
Avg total points
49.6
Meetings
10
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (10 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2025IND 20 at PIT 27PIT
2024PIT 24 at IND 27IND
2023PIT 13 at IND 30IND
2022PIT 24 at IND 17PIT
2020IND 24 at PIT 28PIT
2019IND 24 at PIT 26PIT
2017PIT 20 at IND 17PIT
2016PIT 28 at IND 7PIT
All 10 meetings
2015IND 10 at PIT 45PIT
2014IND 34 at PIT 51PIT
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
George PickensWR11722.4%
Diontae JohnsonWR9418.0%
Jaylen WarrenRB7614.6%
Pat FreiermuthTE5510.5%
Allen RobinsonWR5210.0%
Najee HarrisRB417.9%
Connor HeywardFB356.7%
Calvin Austin IIIWR326.1%
Darnell WashingtonTE112.1%
Miles BoykinWR40.8%
Rod WilliamsTE20.4%
Anthony McFarlandRB20.4%
Gunner OlszewskiWR10.2%
Michael PittmanWR15628.6%
Josh DownsWR9817.9%
Alec PierceWR6511.9%
Kylen GransonTE509.2%
Zack MossRB376.8%
Will MalloryTE264.8%
Jonathan TaylorRB234.2%
Mo Alie-CoxTE224.0%
Andrew OgletreeTE213.8%
Isaiah McKenzieWR142.6%
Tyler GoodsonRB91.6%
D.J. MontgomeryWR81.5%
Trey SermonRB61.1%
Deon JacksonRB61.1%
Amari RodgersWR20.4%
Evan HullRB10.2%
Jake FunkRB10.2%
Juwann WinfreeWR10.2%
Pittsburgh Steelers2024–25 seasons
Indianapolis Colts2024–25 seasons
