RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Jan 2, 2022
Clay Martin
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.1
≈ in line with the league average (11.3)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
93.4
≈ in line with the league average (93.6)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.0
≈ in line with the league average (9.0)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 510 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playMercedes-Benz Superdome · TurfStadium scoring factor 107 (3rd of 32, 100 = league average) · 49 points a game in 88 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2023 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2023 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
DET offensevsNO defense
DET offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · NO defense in 4 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.13
#6
−0.07
slight#5
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.01
#4
−0.15
slight#3
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
43%
#7
35%
slight#4
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
68%
#2Stronger
51%
#9
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 25 places
5.0%
#4Stronger
5.4%
#29
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.15
#15
1.71
Stronger#1
NO offensevsDET defense
NO offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (4 by a clear margin) · DET defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 15 places
+0.03
#14Stronger
+0.08
#29
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.09
#15
−0.14
Stronger#6
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
39%
#15
37%
slight#11
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
54%
#17Stronger
66%
#30
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 15 places
5.4%
#7Stronger
6.3%
#22
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.94
#4Stronger
1.30
#17
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
DET offenseNO defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
+0.13#6▲
−0.07#5▲
Pass success rate
50%#4
41%#6▲
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors DET
10.5%#5
8.5%#17▲
Yards / dropbackfavors DET
6.9#3
6.1#12▲
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
6.8
8.4
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
9%
13%
Short throws (≤5 air)
53%
49%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors NO
+1.4#14
−4.7#2▲
YAC / completionfavors DET
5.4#13
5.6#26▲
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors DET
5.0%#4
5.4%#29▼
Scramble rate
1.1%
6.5%
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
1.7%#4▼
3.2%#6
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 39 · M 26 · R 35
L 38 · M 17 · R 46
NO offenseDET defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors NO
+0.03#14▲
+0.08#29▲
Pass success ratefavors NO
45%#18
46%#25
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors NO
8.0%#16▲
11.5%#32▲
Yards / dropbackfavors NO
6.2#17
7.0#30
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
8.3
9.0
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
13%
15%
Short throws (≤5 air)
54%
47%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.
+1.9#11▲
+0.1#14▲
YAC / completionfavors DET
4.4#31
5.2#16▲
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors NO
5.4%#7
6.3%#22
Scramble rate
1.8%
4.7%
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
1.8%#9▼
2.7%#10
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 34 · M 19 · R 47
L 40 · M 23 · R 37
Detroit Lions · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:DET scores 50% · allows 42%NO scores 39% · allows 61%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
DETNOsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
DET7 games
Scored16.6
Allowed18.6
Pass share48%
40–56% · 206 plays
NO0 games
None in the last 17.
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
DET8 games
Scored11.5
Allowed14.5
Pass share68%
56–81% · 247 plays
NO7 games
Scored13.0
Allowed6.4
Pass share49%
38–60% · 224 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
DET2 games · small sample
Scored12.0
Allowed8.5
Pass share72%
65 plays · too few games for a range
NO10 games
Scored11.9
Allowed10.6
Pass share66%
61–70% · 337 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
DETat the half: led 7 · within 3 in 8 · trailed 2 (of 17)
4.0
4.7Q1
9.6
6.4Q2
13.6scored11.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.2
7.1Q3
7.6
8.0Q4
NOat the half: led 0 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 10 (of 17)
2.0
6.4Q1
5.9
7.6Q2
7.9scored14.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.4
4.3Q3
6.6
4.2Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
DETNO
14-6
Record
9-8
27.4
Points for / game
23.6
23.8
Points against / game
19.2
8-2 / 6-4
Home / road
5-3 / 4-5
L W W W L
Last 5
W W L W W
2023 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–20 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
DETNO
0.068
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.029
0.008
EPA / play allowed
-0.089
272
Pass yards / game
249
134
Rush yards / game
102
277
Pass yards allowed
222
91
Rush yards allowed
120
1.1 / 1.6
Turnovers / takeaways
0.8 / 1.5
1.9 / 2.5
Sacks allowed / made
2.1 / 2.0
21.2
First downs / game
18.3
45
Penalty yards / game
50
+4.1 · #12 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+0.5 · #23 of 52
2023 season to date · 17–20 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
DETNO
7-9 · 44%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-10 · 33%
Last two seasons (2022–2023), DET 37 games, NO 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
5DETseriesNO2
Avg total points
60.9
Meetings
7
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (7 of the 15 seasons in our history). DET have won the last 2.
2026NO 30 at DET 31DET
2023DET 33 at NO 28DET
2020NO 35 at DET 29NO
2017DET 38 at NO 52NO
2016DET 28 at NO 13DET
2015DET 35 at NO 27DET
2014NO 23 at DET 24DET
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR19829.2%
Sam LaPortaTE14721.6%
Jahmyr GibbsRB8512.5%
Josh ReynoldsWR7811.5%
Jameson WilliamsWR517.5%
Kalif RaymondWR446.5%
David MontgomeryRB314.6%
Brock WrightTE152.2%
Marvin JonesWR101.5%
Donovan Peoples-JonesWR71.0%
Craig ReynoldsRB50.7%
James MitchellTE20.3%
Antoine GreenWR20.3%
Anthony FirkserTE10.1%
Devine OzigboRB10.1%
Jason CabindaFB10.1%
Bam KnightRB10.1%
Chris OlaveWR13823.8%
Alvin KamaraRB8614.9%
Rashid ShaheedWR7513.0%
Michael ThomasWR6411.1%
Juwan JohnsonTE5910.2%
Taysom HillTE406.9%
Foster MoreauTE254.3%
Jamaal WilliamsRB203.5%
A.T. PerryWR183.1%
Lynn BowdenWR162.8%
Kendre MillerRB111.9%
Keith KirkwoodWR91.6%
Jimmy GrahamTE71.2%
Tony JonesRB61.0%
Adam PrenticeFB30.5%
Jordan MimsRB20.3%
Detroit Lions2024–25 seasons
New Orleans Saints2024–25 seasons
