RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Sep 23, 2021
Alex Kemp
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
12.4
≈ in line with the league average (11.4)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
100.5
≈ in line with the league average (96.6)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.8
≈ in line with the league average (9.1)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 494 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playMercedes-Benz Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 102 (12th of 32, 100 = league average) · 46.6 points a game in 74 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2022 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2022 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
ARI offensevsATL defense
ARI offense ranks better in 5 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · ATL defense in 1
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.10
#28slight
+0.13
#30
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.07
#23slight
+0.01
#25
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
35%
#26slight
47%
#31
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
57%
#11Stronger
56%
#17
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 16 places
6.2%
#16Stronger
3.5%
#32
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.41
#27
1.00
slight#25
ATL offensevsARI defense
ATL offense ranks better in 5 of 6 matchups (4 by a clear margin) · ARI defense in 1
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.02
#20slight
+0.05
#21
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 18 places
+0.02
#3Stronger
−0.04
#21
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 17 places
42%
#9Stronger
43%
#26
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
56%
#15Stronger
65%
#28
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
7.6%
#25
5.5%
slight#24
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.12
#10Stronger
1.18
#20
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
ARI offenseATL defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:ARI scores 51% · allows 50%ATL scores 58% · allows 46%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
ARIATLsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
ARI5 games
Scored8.6
Allowed14.2
Pass share54%
43–65% · 152 plays
ATL6 games
Scored10.3
Allowed13.0
Pass share37%
25–49% · 143 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
ARI3 games
Scored3.3
Allowed17.0
Pass share67%
64–69% · 66 plays
ATL5 games
Scored12.4
Allowed13.2
Pass share53%
42–65% · 167 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
ARI9 games
Scored13.7
Allowed15.7
Pass share73%
67–78% · 308 plays
ATL6 games
Scored5.3
Allowed12.7
Pass share58%
47–68% · 177 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
ARIat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 9 (of 17)
5.2
7.6Q1
5.6
8.1Q2
10.8scored15.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
4.9
7.0Q3
5.4
8.3Q4
ATLat the half: led 6 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 6 (of 17)
5.1
5.1Q1
7.7
5.9Q2
12.8scored11.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.9
5.4Q3
6.3
7.1Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
ARIATL
4-13
Record
7-10
20.0
Points for / game
21.5
26.4
Points against / game
22.7
1-8 / 3-5
Home / road
6-3 / 1-7
L L L L L
Last 5
W W L L L
2022 season only (not a rolling window) · 17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
ARIATL
-0.085
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.023
0.014
EPA / play allowed
0.081
233
Pass yards / game
172
110
Rush yards / game
160
246
Pass yards allowed
241
119
Rush yards allowed
130
1.3 / 1.4
Turnovers / takeaways
1.0 / 1.1
2.7 / 2.1
Sacks allowed / made
2.2 / 1.2
17.9
First downs / game
17.6
54
Penalty yards / game
35
—
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−1.9 · #33 of 52
2022 season to date · 17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
ARIATL
9-12 · 43%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
6-17 · 26%
Last two seasons (2021–2022), ARI 35 games, ATL 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3ARIseriesATL6
Avg total points
48.8
Meetings
9
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (9 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2025ATL 26 at ARI 19ATL
2023ATL 23 at ARI 25ARI
2022ARI 19 at ATL 20ATL
2019ATL 33 at ARI 34ARI
2018ARI 14 at ATL 40ATL
2016ARI 19 at ATL 38ATL
2014ARI 18 at ATL 29ATL
2013ATL 13 at ARI 27ARI
All 9 meetings
2012ARI 19 at ATL 23ATL
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Marquise BrownWR10716.9%
DeAndre HopkinsWR9615.1%
Zach ErtzTE6910.9%
Greg DortchWR6410.1%
James ConnerRB589.1%
Rondale MooreWR568.8%
A.J. GreenWR477.4%
Trey McBrideTE396.2%
Eno BenjaminRB335.2%
Robbie ChosenWR172.7%
Andre BaccelliaWR101.6%
Darrel WilliamsRB81.3%
Corey ClementRB71.1%
Stephen AndersonTE71.1%
Keaontay IngramRB50.8%
Andy IsabellaWR50.8%
Maxx WilliamsTE30.5%
Pharoh CooperWR20.3%
Ty'Son WilliamsRB10.2%
Drake LondonWR11729.3%
Olamide ZaccheausWR6115.3%
Kyle PittsTE5914.8%
Cordarrelle PattersonRB317.8%
Damiere ByrdWR235.8%
MyCole PruittTE215.3%
KhaDarel HodgeWR205.0%
Tyler AllgeierRB174.3%
Avery WilliamsRB143.5%
Anthony FirkserTE133.3%
Parker HesseTE112.8%
Bryan EdwardsWR51.3%
Feleipe FranksTE20.5%
Keith SmithFB20.5%
Caleb HuntleyRB20.5%
Josh AliWR10.3%
Frank DarbyWR10.3%
Arizona Cardinals2024–25 seasons
Atlanta Falcons2024–25 seasons
