RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Terry McAulay
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playGeorgia Dome · TurfStadium scoring factor 102 (12th of 32, 100 = league average) · 46.6 points a game in 74 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Arizona Cardinals · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:ARI scores 51% · allows 50%ATL scores 58% · allows 46%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
ARIATLsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
ARI5 games
Scored8.6
Allowed14.2
Pass share54%
43–65% · 152 plays
ATL6 games
Scored10.3
Allowed13.0
Pass share37%
25–49% · 143 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
ARI3 games
Scored3.3
Allowed17.0
Pass share67%
64–69% · 66 plays
ATL5 games
Scored12.4
Allowed13.2
Pass share53%
42–65% · 167 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
ARI9 games
Scored13.7
Allowed15.7
Pass share73%
67–78% · 308 plays
ATL6 games
Scored5.3
Allowed12.7
Pass share58%
47–68% · 177 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
ARIat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 9 (of 17)
5.2
7.6Q1
5.6
8.1Q2
10.8scored15.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
4.9
7.0Q3
5.4
8.3Q4
ATLat the half: led 6 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 6 (of 17)
5.1
5.1Q1
7.7
5.9Q2
12.8scored11.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.9
5.4Q3
6.3
7.1Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
ARIATL
11-6
Record
6-10
19.2
Points for / game
23.8
19.2
Points against / game
26.1
7-1 / 4-5
Home / road
3-5 / 3-5
L L L W W
Last 5
L W L L W
2014 season only (not a rolling window) · 16–17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
ARIATL
-0.065
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.026
-0.054
EPA / play allowed
0.090
240
Pass yards / game
297
79
Rush yards / game
94
270
Pass yards allowed
289
113
Rush yards allowed
118
1.1 / 1.7
Turnovers / takeaways
1.3 / 1.8
1.9 / 2.1
Sacks allowed / made
1.9 / 1.4
15.6
First downs / game
19.3
44
Penalty yards / game
53
+0.1 · #23 of 45
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+4.6 · #11 of 45
2014 season to date · 16–17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
ARIATL
10-10 · 50%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
4-16 · 20%
Last two seasons (2013–2014), ARI 33 games, ATL 32. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3ARIseriesATL6
Avg total points
48.8
Meetings
9
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (9 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2025ATL 26 at ARI 19ATL
2023ATL 23 at ARI 25ARI
2022ARI 19 at ATL 20ATL
2019ATL 33 at ARI 34ARI
2018ARI 14 at ATL 40ATL
2016ARI 19 at ATL 38ATL
2014ARI 18 at ATL 29ATL
2013ATL 13 at ARI 27ARI
All 9 meetings
2012ARI 19 at ATL 23ATL
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Larry FitzgeraldWR11219.0%
John BrownWR10818.3%
Michael FloydWR10117.1%
Andre EllingtonRB6410.9%
John CarlsonTE5910.0%
Jaron BrownWR335.6%
Ted GinnWR274.6%
Rob HouslerTE193.2%
Stepfan TaylorRB152.5%
Robert HughesRB132.2%
Darren FellsTE122.0%
Marion GriceRB111.9%
Kerwynn WilliamsRB91.5%
Troy NiklasTE30.5%
Jonathan DwyerRB30.5%
Julio JonesWR16326.2%
Roddy WhiteWR12520.1%
Harry DouglasWR7411.9%
Devin HesterWR599.5%
Levine ToiloloTE538.5%
Jacquizz RodgersRB406.4%
Devonta FreemanRB375.9%
Steven JacksonRB274.3%
Antone SmithRB152.4%
Patrick DiMarcoRB142.2%
Eric WeemsWR111.8%
Courtney RobyWR20.3%
Bear PascoeTE20.3%
Freddie MartinoWR10.2%
Arizona Cardinals2024–25 seasons
Atlanta Falcons2024–25 seasons
