RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Dec 27, 2020
Jerome Boger
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.3
≈ in line with the league average (11.5)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
92.8
≈ in line with the league average (97.2)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.0
≈ in line with the league average (9.1)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 507 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playFord Field · TurfStadium scoring factor 116 (1st of 32, 100 = league average) · 52.7 points a game in 87 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2022 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2022 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
JAX offensevsDET defense
JAX offense ranks better in 5 of 6 matchups (5 by a clear margin) · DET defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 22 places
+0.10
#7Stronger
+0.11
#29
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.05
#19Stronger
+0.04
#28
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
42%
#10Stronger
46%
#30
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
56%
#13Stronger
64%
#26
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
4.3%
#5Stronger
6.1%
#20
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.47
#29
1.24
Stronger#17
DET offensevsJAX defense
DET offense ranks better in 5 of 6 matchups (5 by a clear margin) · JAX defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.16
#4Stronger
+0.06
#24
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.05
#20
−0.11
Stronger#6
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
41%
#14Stronger
44%
#29
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 21 places
66%
#4Stronger
63%
#25
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 25 places
3.8%
#3Stronger
5.0%
#28
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.82
#2Stronger
1.37
#10
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
JAX offenseDET defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors JAX
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:JAX scores 53% · allows 44%DET scores 50% · allows 42%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
JAXDETsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
JAX11 games
Scored12.0
Allowed9.0
Pass share39%
35–44% · 307 plays
DET7 games
Scored16.6
Allowed18.6
Pass share48%
40–56% · 206 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
JAX3 games
Scored20.0
Allowed15.7
Pass share45%
34–57% · 110 plays
DET8 games
Scored11.5
Allowed14.5
Pass share68%
56–81% · 247 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
JAX3 games
Scored10.0
Allowed10.3
Pass share69%
56–81% · 105 plays
DET2 games · small sample
Scored12.0
Allowed8.5
Pass share72%
65 plays · too few games for a range
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
JAXat the half: led 11 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 3 (of 17)
6.0
3.2Q1
8.9
5.0Q2
14.9scored8.2allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.1
2.7Q3
6.4
7.4Q4
DETat the half: led 7 · within 3 in 8 · trailed 2 (of 17)
4.0
4.7Q1
9.6
6.4Q2
13.6scored11.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.2
7.1Q3
7.6
8.0Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
JAXDET
10-9
Record
9-8
23.9
Points for / game
26.6
21.4
Points against / game
25.1
6-3 / 4-6
Home / road
5-4 / 4-4
L W W W W
Last 5
W W L W W
2022 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–19 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
JAXDET
0.046
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.062
-0.004
EPA / play allowed
0.085
245
Pass yards / game
261
125
Rush yards / game
128
250
Pass yards allowed
262
114
Rush yards allowed
147
1.2 / 1.6
Turnovers / takeaways
0.6 / 1.5
1.7 / 2.0
Sacks allowed / made
1.4 / 2.3
19.2
First downs / game
20.1
39
Penalty yards / game
45
+4.1 · #11 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+5.1 · #9 of 52
2022 season to date · 17–19 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
JAXDET
11-18 · 38%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
9-19-1 · 32%
Last two seasons (2021–2022), JAX 36 games, DET 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
0JAXseriesDET5
Avg total points
50.4
Meetings
5
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (5 of the 15 seasons in our history). DET have won the last 5.
2024JAX 6 at DET 52DET
2022JAX 14 at DET 40DET
2020DET 34 at JAX 16DET
2016JAX 19 at DET 26DET
2012DET 31 at JAX 14DET
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Christian KirkWR16124.5%
Zay JonesWR14121.4%
Evan EngramTE11517.5%
Marvin JonesWR9013.7%
Travis EtienneRB497.4%
Jamal AgnewWR345.2%
JaMycal HastyRB284.3%
Dan ArnoldTE132.0%
James RobinsonRB111.7%
Chris ManhertzTE81.2%
Luke FarrellTE40.6%
Tim JonesWR40.6%
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR14626.0%
D'Andre SwiftRB7012.5%
Kalif RaymondWR6411.4%
Josh ReynoldsWR5910.5%
DJ CharkWR529.3%
T.J. HockensonTE437.7%
Brock WrightTE244.3%
Justin JacksonRB193.4%
Jamaal WilliamsRB162.8%
Tom KennedyWR152.7%
Shane ZylstraTE152.7%
James MitchellTE112.0%
Craig ReynoldsRB101.8%
Jameson WilliamsWR91.6%
Jason CabindaFB40.7%
Quintez CephusWR30.5%
Jared GoffQB10.2%
Maurice AlexanderWR10.2%
Jacksonville Jaguars2024–25 seasons
Detroit Lions2024–25 seasons
