RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Dec 4, 2022
Scott Novak
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
10.8
≈ in line with the league average (11.5)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
85.0
≈ in line with the league average (94.1)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
8.6
≈ in line with the league average (9.2)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 541 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playFord Field · TurfStadium scoring factor 116 (1st of 32, 100 = league average) · 52.7 points a game in 87 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2024 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2024 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
JAX offensevsDET defense
JAX offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · DET defense in 3 (3 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.00
#21
−0.02
Stronger#7
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.06
#13slight
−0.08
#14
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
37%
#22
32%
Stronger#1
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
59%
#10slight
54%
#12
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 24 places
5.3%
#6Stronger
5.1%
#30
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.35
#24
1.33
Stronger#12
DET offensevsJAX defense
DET offense ranks better in 6 of 6 matchups (6 by a clear margin) · JAX defense in 0
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 29 places
+0.25
#3Stronger
+0.23
#32
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.06
#3Stronger
−0.01
#24
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 22 places
47%
#4Stronger
43%
#26
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
68%
#3Stronger
59%
#19
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
5.5%
#8Stronger
5.2%
#29
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.11
#14Stronger
0.47
#32
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
JAX offenseDET defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors DET
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:JAX scores 53% · allows 44%DET scores 50% · allows 42%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
JAXDETsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
JAX11 games
Scored12.0
Allowed9.0
Pass share39%
35–44% · 307 plays
DET7 games
Scored16.6
Allowed18.6
Pass share48%
40–56% · 206 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
JAX3 games
Scored20.0
Allowed15.7
Pass share45%
34–57% · 110 plays
DET8 games
Scored11.5
Allowed14.5
Pass share68%
56–81% · 247 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
JAX3 games
Scored10.0
Allowed10.3
Pass share69%
56–81% · 105 plays
DET2 games · small sample
Scored12.0
Allowed8.5
Pass share72%
65 plays · too few games for a range
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
JAXat the half: led 11 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 3 (of 17)
6.0
3.2Q1
8.9
5.0Q2
14.9scored8.2allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.1
2.7Q3
6.4
7.4Q4
DETat the half: led 7 · within 3 in 8 · trailed 2 (of 17)
4.0
4.7Q1
9.6
6.4Q2
13.6scored11.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.2
7.1Q3
7.6
8.0Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
JAXDET
4-13
Record
15-3
18.8
Points for / game
33.1
25.6
Points against / game
21.5
3-5 / 1-8
Home / road
7-3 / 8-0
L W L L W
Last 5
L W W W L
2024 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
JAXDET
-0.011
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.157
0.118
EPA / play allowed
-0.009
219
Pass yards / game
281
102
Rush yards / game
149
271
Pass yards allowed
261
133
Rush yards allowed
103
1.2 / 0.6
Turnovers / takeaways
1.1 / 1.7
1.9 / 2.0
Sacks allowed / made
1.9 / 2.1
16.5
First downs / game
23.1
46
Penalty yards / game
56
+1.1 · #23 of 49
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+9.0 · #3 of 49
2024 season to date · 17–18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
JAXDET
4-15 · 21%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
2-3 · 40%
Last two seasons (2023–2024), JAX 34 games, DET 38. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
0JAXseriesDET5
Avg total points
50.4
Meetings
5
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (5 of the 15 seasons in our history). DET have won the last 5.
2024JAX 6 at DET 52DET
2022JAX 14 at DET 40DET
2020DET 34 at JAX 16DET
2016JAX 19 at DET 26DET
2012DET 31 at JAX 14DET
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Brian Thomas Jr.WR13325.5%
Evan EngramTE6412.3%
Brenton StrangeTE5310.2%
Travis EtienneRB5210.0%
Parker WashingtonWR519.8%
Christian KirkWR479.0%
Gabe DavisWR428.0%
D'Ernest JohnsonRB193.6%
Luke FarrellTE173.3%
Devin DuvernayWR163.1%
Tank BigsbyRB122.3%
Tim JonesWR51.0%
Josh ReynoldsWR51.0%
Josiah DeguaraTE30.6%
Austin TrammellWR30.6%
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR15127.0%
Jameson WilliamsWR9517.0%
Sam LaPortaTE9016.1%
Jahmyr GibbsRB7413.2%
Tim PatrickWR488.6%
David MontgomeryRB386.8%
Kalif RaymondWR254.5%
Brock WrightTE162.9%
Allen RobinsonWR71.3%
Craig ReynoldsRB50.9%
Sione VakiRB30.5%
Isaiah WilliamsWR30.5%
Tom KennedyWR10.2%
Jermar JeffersonRB10.2%
Jared GoffQB10.2%
Shane ZylstraTE10.2%
Jacksonville Jaguars2024–25 seasons
Detroit Lions2024–25 seasons
