RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Walt Coleman
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playU.S. Bank Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 98 (21th of 32, 100 = league average) · 44.8 points a game in 85 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Cincinnati Bengals · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:CIN scores 49% · allows 44%MIN scores 48% · allows 55%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
CINMINsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
CIN7 games
Scored14.1
Allowed15.6
Pass share53%
46–60% · 217 plays
MIN4 games
Scored8.0
Allowed4.8
Pass share51%
43–60% · 113 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
CIN4 games
Scored16.5
Allowed14.0
Pass share67%
52–82% · 120 plays
MIN7 games
Scored10.3
Allowed7.1
Pass share49%
36–62% · 191 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
CIN6 games
Scored11.0
Allowed15.3
Pass share72%
65–78% · 209 plays
MIN6 games
Scored11.0
Allowed11.3
Pass share60%
52–68% · 139 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
CINat the half: led 7 · within 3 in 4 · trailed 6 (of 17)
5.1
4.6Q1
7.8
7.2Q2
12.9scored11.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.5
5.9Q3
7.1
9.2Q4
MINat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 6 (of 17)
4.9
3.8Q1
4.4
6.1Q2
9.3scored9.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.9
4.2Q3
6.1
3.9Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
CINMIN
7-9
Record
14-4
18.1
Points for / game
23.2
21.8
Points against / game
17.4
4-4 / 3-5
Home / road
8-1 / 6-3
W W L L L
Last 5
L W W W W
2017 season only (not a rolling window) · 16–18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
CINMIN
-0.097
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.012
-0.043
EPA / play allowed
-0.114
212
Pass yards / game
251
85
Rush yards / game
118
229
Pass yards allowed
221
128
Rush yards allowed
85
1.1 / 0.9
Turnovers / takeaways
0.9 / 1.4
2.5 / 2.6
Sacks allowed / made
1.7 / 2.2
14.8
First downs / game
18.7
64
Penalty yards / game
55
−2.6 · #28 of 47
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+2.9 · #16 of 47
2017 season to date · 16–18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
CINMIN
5-11 · 31%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
4-5 · 44%
Last two seasons (2016–2017), CIN 32 games, MIN 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3CINseriesMIN2
Avg total points
51.4
Meetings
5
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (5 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2025CIN 10 at MIN 48MIN
2023MIN 24 at CIN 27CIN
2021MIN 24 at CIN 27CIN
2017CIN 7 at MIN 34MIN
2013MIN 14 at CIN 42CIN
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
A.J. GreenWR14329.3%
Brandon LaFellWR8918.2%
Tyler KroftTE6212.7%
Giovani BernardRB6012.3%
Joe MixonRB347.0%
Tyler BoydWR326.6%
Josh MaloneWR173.5%
Alex EricksonWR163.3%
C.J. UzomahTE153.1%
Tyler EifertTE51.0%
Cody CoreWR40.8%
Jeremy HillRB40.8%
Ryan HewittTE20.4%
Brian HillRB20.4%
John RossWR20.4%
Cethan CarterTE10.2%
Adam ThielenWR16026.4%
Stefon DiggsWR11719.3%
Kyle RudolphTE9315.3%
Jerick McKinnonRB8413.8%
Jarius WrightWR376.1%
Laquon TreadwellWR365.9%
Latavius MurrayRB213.5%
Michael FloydWR183.0%
Dalvin CookRB162.6%
David MorganTE122.0%
C.J. HamFB81.3%
Blake BellTE40.7%
Stacy ColeyWR10.2%
Cincinnati Bengals2024–25 seasons
Minnesota Vikings2024–25 seasons
