RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Jerome Boger
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playUniversity of Phoenix Stadium · grassStadium scoring factor 104 (8th of 32, 100 = league average) · 47.3 points a game in 82 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Tennessee Titans · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:TEN scores 46% · allows 58%ARI scores 51% · allows 50%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
TENARIsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
TEN1 game · small sample
Scored6.0
Allowed24.0
Pass share69%
36 plays · too few games for a range
ARI5 games
Scored8.6
Allowed14.2
Pass share54%
43–65% · 152 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
TEN4 games
Scored11.8
Allowed9.5
Pass share50%
38–62% · 118 plays
ARI3 games
Scored3.3
Allowed17.0
Pass share67%
64–69% · 66 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
TEN12 games
Scored8.6
Allowed10.2
Pass share68%
62–74% · 350 plays
ARI9 games
Scored13.7
Allowed15.7
Pass share73%
67–78% · 308 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
TENat the half: led 1 · within 3 in 4 · trailed 12 (of 17)
4.9
5.1Q1
2.9
10.0Q2
7.8scored15.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.8
6.6Q3
6.4
4.2Q4
ARIat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 9 (of 17)
5.2
7.6Q1
5.6
8.1Q2
10.8scored15.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
4.9
7.0Q3
5.4
8.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
TENARI
10-8
Record
8-8
20.6
Points for / game
18.4
22.9
Points against / game
22.6
6-2 / 4-6
Home / road
5-3 / 3-5
L W W L L
Last 5
W W L W L
2017 season only (not a rolling window) · 16–18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
TENARI
-0.066
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.152
-0.018
EPA / play allowed
-0.091
215
Pass yards / game
249
117
Rush yards / game
87
262
Pass yards allowed
237
88
Rush yards allowed
90
1.3 / 1.3
Turnovers / takeaways
1.4 / 2.0
2.5 / 2.6
Sacks allowed / made
3.3 / 2.3
16.1
First downs / game
16.6
50
Penalty yards / game
55
+0.6 · #24 of 47
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−11.3 · #47 of 47
2017 season to date · 16–18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
TENARI
5-9 · 36%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-10 · 33%
Last two seasons (2016–2017), TEN 34 games, ARI 32. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
1TENseriesARI3
Avg total points
46.0
Meetings
4
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (4 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2025TEN 22 at ARI 21TEN
2021ARI 38 at TEN 13ARI
2017TEN 7 at ARI 12ARI
2013ARI 37 at TEN 34ARI
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Delanie WalkerTE12622.9%
Rishard MatthewsWR9717.6%
Eric DeckerWR9517.2%
Corey DavisWR8014.5%
DeMarco MurrayRB478.5%
Jonnu SmithTE356.4%
Taywan TaylorWR325.8%
Derrick HenryRB234.2%
Phillip SupernawTE61.1%
Harry DouglasWR30.5%
Eric WeemsWR20.4%
Luke StockerTE20.4%
Jalston FowlerRB10.2%
David FluellenRB10.2%
Marcus MariotaQB10.2%
Larry FitzgeraldWR16127.2%
Jaron BrownWR6911.7%
J.J. NelsonWR6110.3%
John BrownWR559.3%
Andre EllingtonRB508.4%
Jermaine GreshamTE467.8%
Ricky Seals-JonesTE284.7%
D.J. FosterRB284.7%
Troy NiklasTE233.9%
Adrian PetersonRB162.7%
Kerwynn WilliamsRB152.5%
David JohnsonRB91.5%
Brittan GoldenWR91.5%
Chad WilliamsWR71.2%
Elijhaa PennyFB61.0%
Chris JohnsonRB61.0%
Ifeanyi MomahTE20.3%
Gabe HolmesTE10.2%
Tennessee Titans2024–25 seasons
Arizona Cardinals2024–25 seasons
