RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Nov 5, 2023
Shawn Smith
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
12.1
≈ in line with the league average (12.3)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
98.9
≈ in line with the league average (99.7)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.7
≈ in line with the league average (9.9)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 512 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playState Farm Stadium · grassStadium scoring factor 104 (8th of 32, 100 = league average) · 47.3 points a game in 82 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
TEN offensevsARI defense
TEN offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · ARI defense in 3
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.20
#31
+0.17
slight#26
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.09
#26
−0.02
slight#25
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
32%
#32
45%
slight#29
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 13 places
58%
#14Stronger
64%
#27
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
8.7%
#26slight
4.8%
#28
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.12
#15slight
1.12
#18
ARI offensevsTEN defense
ARI offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · TEN defense in 2 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.02
#19Stronger
+0.19
#29
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.11
#29
−0.02
Stronger#22
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
42%
#9Stronger
41%
#19
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
54%
#24slight
66%
#29
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 14 places
7.9%
#24
7.0%
Stronger#10
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 12 places
1.18
#17Stronger
0.71
#29
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
TEN offenseARI defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
−0.20#31
+0.17#26▲
Pass success rate
37%#31
52%#31
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors ARI
6.5%#28▲
8.7%#22
Yards / dropbackfavors ARI
4.6#31
6.6#24
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
7.1
7.8
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
10%
10%
Short throws (≤5 air)
54%
52%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors ARI
−3.5#29▲
+1.0#19
YAC / completionfavors ARI
4.8#24
5.0#16
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
8.7%#26▼
4.8%#28
Scramble rate
3.6%
3.9%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors TEN
1.4%#5
1.8%#22▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 38 · M 19 · R 43
L 39 · M 20 · R 41
ARI offenseTEN defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors ARI
+0.02#19▼
+0.19#29▼
Pass success ratefavors ARI
45%#19
49%#26
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
6.8%#26▲
10.1%#30
Yards / dropback
5.7#26
7.1#30
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
7.2
7.8
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
10%
13%
Short throws (≤5 air)
58%
53%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors ARI
+1.0#13▼
+6.1#30▲
YAC / completion
4.9#21
5.6#26
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors TEN
7.9%#24▲
7.0%#10
Scramble rate
5.1%
6.7%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors ARI
1.7%#7
1.2%#29▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 37 · M 21 · R 42
L 37 · M 21 · R 41
Tennessee Titans · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:TEN scores 46% · allows 58%ARI scores 51% · allows 50%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
TENARIsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
TEN1 game · small sample
Scored6.0
Allowed24.0
Pass share69%
36 plays · too few games for a range
ARI5 games
Scored8.6
Allowed14.2
Pass share54%
43–65% · 152 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
TEN4 games
Scored11.8
Allowed9.5
Pass share50%
38–62% · 118 plays
ARI3 games
Scored3.3
Allowed17.0
Pass share67%
64–69% · 66 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
TEN12 games
Scored8.6
Allowed10.2
Pass share68%
62–74% · 350 plays
ARI9 games
Scored13.7
Allowed15.7
Pass share73%
67–78% · 308 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
TENat the half: led 1 · within 3 in 4 · trailed 12 (of 17)
4.9
5.1Q1
2.9
10.0Q2
7.8scored15.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.8
6.6Q3
6.4
4.2Q4
ARIat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 9 (of 17)
5.2
7.6Q1
5.6
8.1Q2
10.8scored15.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
4.9
7.0Q3
5.4
8.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
TENARI
3-14
Record
3-14
16.7
Points for / game
20.9
28.1
Points against / game
28.7
1-8 / 2-6
Home / road
1-7 / 2-7
L L W L W
Last 5
L L L L L
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
TENARI
-0.158
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.016
0.094
EPA / play allowed
0.082
191
Pass yards / game
256
93
Rush yards / game
93
248
Pass yards allowed
243
115
Rush yards allowed
127
0.6 / 0.8
Turnovers / takeaways
0.9 / 1.4
3.3 / 2.5
Sacks allowed / made
3.5 / 1.8
14.2
First downs / game
18.1
59
Penalty yards / game
50
−6.6 · #46 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+2.0 · #22 of 52
2025 season to date · 17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
TENARI
5-23 · 18%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
6-18 · 25%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), TEN 34 games, ARI 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
1TENseriesARI3
Avg total points
46.0
Meetings
4
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (4 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2025TEN 22 at ARI 21TEN
2021ARI 38 at TEN 13ARI
2017TEN 7 at ARI 12ARI
2013ARI 37 at TEN 34ARI
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Elic AyomanorWR8916.8%
Chig OkonkwoTE7914.9%
Chimere DikeWR7414.0%
Gunnar HelmTE5510.4%
Van JeffersonWR529.8%
Tyjae SpearsRB509.4%
Tony PollardRB417.7%
Calvin RidleyWR366.8%
Tyler LockettWR214.0%
James ProcheWR122.3%
Xavier RestrepoWR71.3%
David Martin-RobinsonTE61.1%
Mason KinseyWR40.8%
Julius ChestnutRB20.4%
Jeffery SimmonsDT10.2%
Bryce OliverWR10.2%
Trey McBrideTE16927.4%
Michael WilsonWR12620.4%
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR7311.8%
Michael CarterRB457.3%
Elijah HigginsTE376.0%
Greg DortchWR335.3%
Bam KnightRB315.0%
Emari DemercadoRB203.2%
Zay JonesWR182.9%
Trey BensonRB162.6%
Xavier WeaverWR132.1%
James ConnerRB91.5%
Jalen BrooksWR61.0%
Tip ReimanTE50.8%
Josiah DeguaraTE50.8%
Andre BaccelliaWR40.6%
Corey KinerRB30.5%
Pharaoh BrownTE20.3%
Trent SherfieldWR10.2%
Steven SimsWR10.2%
Tennessee Titans2024–25 seasons
Arizona Cardinals2024–25 seasons
