RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Terry McAulay
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playMercedes-Benz Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 102 (12th of 32, 100 = league average) · 46.6 points a game in 74 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Buffalo Bills · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:BUF scores 48% · allows 58%ATL scores 58% · allows 46%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
BUFATLsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
BUF5 games
Scored11.8
Allowed10.6
Pass share35%
30–40% · 152 plays
ATL6 games
Scored10.3
Allowed13.0
Pass share37%
25–49% · 143 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
BUF5 games
Scored15.0
Allowed12.0
Pass share53%
43–63% · 138 plays
ATL5 games
Scored12.4
Allowed13.2
Pass share53%
42–65% · 167 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
BUF7 games
Scored18.1
Allowed7.1
Pass share51%
45–58% · 280 plays
ATL6 games
Scored5.3
Allowed12.7
Pass share58%
47–68% · 177 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
BUFat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 7 (of 17)
3.9
5.1Q1
10.0
8.4Q2
13.9scored13.5allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.1
2.3Q3
9.3
7.1Q4
ATLat the half: led 6 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 6 (of 17)
5.1
5.1Q1
7.7
5.9Q2
12.8scored11.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.9
5.4Q3
6.3
7.1Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
BUFATL
9-8
Record
11-7
17.9
Points for / game
21.6
21.7
Points against / game
19.1
6-2 / 3-6
Home / road
5-3 / 6-4
L W L W W
Last 5
L W W L W
2017 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
BUFATL
-0.072
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.032
0.013
EPA / play allowed
-0.015
189
Pass yards / game
254
126
Rush yards / game
114
231
Pass yards allowed
235
126
Rush yards allowed
104
0.9 / 2.1
Turnovers / takeaways
0.9 / 1.2
2.9 / 1.6
Sacks allowed / made
1.7 / 2.4
15.8
First downs / game
18.8
54
Penalty yards / game
58
+0.9 · #23 of 47
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+4.4 · #12 of 47
2017 season to date · 17–18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
BUFATL
6-12 · 33%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
6-5 · 55%
Last two seasons (2016–2017), BUF 33 games, ATL 37. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
2BUFseriesATL2
Avg total points
46.8
Meetings
4
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (4 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2025BUF 14 at ATL 24ATL
2021ATL 15 at BUF 29BUF
2017BUF 23 at ATL 17BUF
2013ATL 34 vs BUF 31ATL
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
LeSean McCoyRB8516.9%
Charles ClayTE7915.7%
Zay JonesWR7815.5%
Deonte ThompsonWR5711.3%
Nick O'LearyTE387.6%
Jordan MatthewsTE367.2%
Kelvin BenjaminWR285.6%
Andre HolmesWR234.6%
Mike TolbertFB183.6%
Travaris CadetRB163.2%
Brandon TateWR142.8%
Logan ThomasTE112.2%
Patrick DiMarcoRB112.2%
Kaelin ClayWR51.0%
Marcus MurphyRB20.4%
Taiwan JonesRB20.4%
Julio JonesWR17429.9%
Mohamed SanuWR10918.8%
Austin HooperTE7112.2%
Devonta FreemanRB549.3%
Taylor GabrielWR549.3%
Tevin ColemanRB437.4%
Justin HardyWR315.3%
Levine ToiloloTE162.8%
Marvin HallWR91.5%
Derrick ColemanFB71.2%
Nick WilliamsWR50.9%
Andre RobertsWR40.7%
Terron WardRB40.7%
Buffalo Bills2024–25 seasons
Atlanta Falcons2024–25 seasons
