RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Walt Anderson
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playRogers Centre · TurfStadium scoring factor 104 (5th of 32, 100 = league average) · 47.5 points a game in 93 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Atlanta Falcons · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
2013 season
Harry Douglas · 132 (20.3%)Tony Gonzalez · 121 (18.6%)Roddy White · 97 (14.9%)Jacquizz Rodgers · 62 (9.6%)Julio Jones · 60 (9.2%)Steven Jackson · 49 (7.6%)Darius Johnson · 43 (6.6%)Jason Snelling · 34 (5.2%)Drew Davis · 17 (2.6%)Levine Toilolo · 14 (2.2%)Patrick DiMarco · 10 (1.5%)Antone Smith · 3 (0.5%)Bradie Ewing · 2 (0.3%)Chase Coffman · 2 (0.3%)Kevin Cone · 1 (0.2%)Brian Robiskie · 1 (0.2%)Josh Vaughan · 1 (0.2%)
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:ATL scores 58% · allows 46%BUF scores 48% · allows 58%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
ATLBUFsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
ATL6 games
Scored10.3
Allowed13.0
Pass share37%
25–49% · 143 plays
BUF5 games
Scored11.8
Allowed10.6
Pass share35%
30–40% · 152 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
ATL5 games
Scored12.4
Allowed13.2
Pass share53%
42–65% · 167 plays
BUF5 games
Scored15.0
Allowed12.0
Pass share53%
43–63% · 138 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
ATL6 games
Scored5.3
Allowed12.7
Pass share58%
47–68% · 177 plays
BUF7 games
Scored18.1
Allowed7.1
Pass share51%
45–58% · 280 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
ATLat the half: led 6 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 6 (of 17)
5.1
5.1Q1
7.7
5.9Q2
12.8scored11.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.9
5.4Q3
6.3
7.1Q4
BUFat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 7 (of 17)
3.9
5.1Q1
10.0
8.4Q2
13.9scored13.5allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.1
2.3Q3
9.3
7.1Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
ATLBUF
4-12
Record
6-10
22.1
Points for / game
21.2
27.7
Points against / game
24.3
3-5 / 1-7
Home / road
4-4 / 2-6
L L W L W
Last 5
L W W L L
2013 season only (not a rolling window) · 16 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
ATLBUF
0.014
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.070
0.110
EPA / play allowed
-0.084
284
Pass yards / game
211
78
Rush yards / game
144
258
Pass yards allowed
229
136
Rush yards allowed
129
1.4 / 1.4
Turnovers / takeaways
1.4 / 2.2
2.8 / 2.0
Sacks allowed / made
3.0 / 3.6
18.2
First downs / game
16.4
49
Penalty yards / game
60
+2.4 · #20 of 46
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−2.9 · #35 of 46
2013 season to date · 16 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
ATLBUF
3-11 · 21%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-17 · 23%
Last two seasons (2012–2013), ATL 34 games, BUF 32. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
2ATLseriesBUF2
Avg total points
46.8
Meetings
4
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (4 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2025BUF 14 at ATL 24ATL
2021ATL 15 at BUF 29BUF
2017BUF 23 at ATL 17BUF
2013ATL 34 vs BUF 31ATL
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Harry DouglasWR13220.3%
Tony GonzalezTE12118.6%
Roddy WhiteWR9714.9%
Jacquizz RodgersRB629.6%
Julio JonesWR609.2%
Steven JacksonRB497.6%
Darius JohnsonWR436.6%
Jason SnellingFB345.2%
Drew DavisWR172.6%
Levine ToiloloTE142.2%
Patrick DiMarcoRB101.5%
Antone SmithRB30.5%
Bradie EwingFB20.3%
Chase CoffmanTE20.3%
Kevin ConeWR10.2%
Brian RobiskieWR10.2%
Josh VaughanRB10.2%
Steve JohnsonWR10119.5%
Robert WoodsWR8516.4%
Scott ChandlerTE8115.6%
Fred JacksonRB6612.7%
Trevor GrahamWR5811.2%
C.J. SpillerRB407.7%
Marquise GoodwinWR326.2%
Chris HoganWR173.3%
Lee SmithTE91.7%
Tashard ChoiceRB81.5%
Frank SummersFB81.5%
Chris GraggTE71.3%
Marcus EasleyWR51.0%
Ronnie WingoRB10.2%
Evan RodriguezTE10.2%
Atlanta Falcons2024–25 seasons
Buffalo Bills2024–25 seasons
