RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Jeff Triplette
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playNRG Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 100 (15th of 32, 100 = league average) · 45.7 points a game in 91 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Los Angeles Chargers · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:LAC scores 46% · allows 55%HOU scores 53% · allows 49%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
LACHOUsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
LAC4 games
Scored13.5
Allowed6.8
Pass share33%
27–38% · 138 plays
HOU10 games
Scored9.8
Allowed12.3
Pass share45%
39–51% · 278 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
LAC6 games
Scored8.3
Allowed8.3
Pass share46%
36–57% · 169 plays
HOU3 games
Scored16.3
Allowed7.3
Pass share56%
48–65% · 94 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
LAC7 games
Scored11.1
Allowed12.6
Pass share66%
60–72% · 221 plays
HOU4 games
Scored11.3
Allowed8.8
Pass share72%
65–78% · 134 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
LACat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 6 · trailed 7 (of 17)
4.2
5.8Q1
5.1
5.9Q2
9.3scored11.7allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.4
3.9Q3
5.2
5.8Q4
HOUat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 4 (of 17)
4.8
2.8Q1
7.8
7.2Q2
12.6scored10.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.4
5.6Q3
7.9
5.0Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
LACHOU
5-11
Record
10-8
25.6
Points for / game
17.9
26.4
Points against / game
20.9
3-5 / 2-6
Home / road
8-1 / 2-7
L L L L L
Last 5
L W L W W
2016 season only (not a rolling window) · 16–18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
LACHOU
0.005
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.110
-0.016
EPA / play allowed
-0.104
274
Pass yards / game
210
94
Rush yards / game
116
264
Pass yards allowed
215
98
Rush yards allowed
98
1.8 / 2.0
Turnovers / takeaways
1.2 / 1.4
2.3 / 2.2
Sacks allowed / made
1.9 / 2.0
19.0
First downs / game
16.8
49
Penalty yards / game
56
+2.9 · #17 of 42
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−3.2 · #35 of 42
2016 season to date · 16–18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
LACHOU
3-16 · 16%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
7-15 · 32%
Last two seasons (2015–2016), LAC 32 games, HOU 35. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
2LACseriesHOU5
Avg total points
49.7
Meetings
7
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (7 of the 15 seasons in our history). HOU have won the last 2.
2025HOU 20 at LAC 16HOU
2024LAC 12 at HOU 32PlayoffsHOU
2022LAC 34 at HOU 24LAC
2021LAC 29 at HOU 41HOU
2019HOU 27 at LAC 20HOU
2016LAC 21 at HOU 13LAC
2013HOU 31 at LAC 28HOU
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Tyrell WilliamsWR11921.1%
Dontrelle InmanWR9717.2%
Antonio GatesTE9316.5%
Travis BenjaminWR7513.3%
Melvin GordonRB5710.1%
Hunter HenryTE539.4%
Kenneth FarrowRB162.8%
Dexter McClusterWR112.0%
Ronnie HillmanRB81.4%
Danny WoodheadRB81.4%
Keenan AllenWR71.2%
Isaiah BurseWR40.7%
Griff WhalenWR40.7%
Derek WattFB40.7%
Jeremy ButlerWR20.4%
Sean McGrathTE20.4%
Geremy DavisWR20.4%
Andre WilliamsRB20.4%
DeAndre HopkinsWR16926.3%
Will FullerWR10316.0%
C.J. FiedorowiczTE9815.3%
Ryan GriffinTE8112.6%
Lamar MillerRB477.3%
Braxton MillerWR284.4%
Jaelen StrongWR243.7%
Jonathan GrimesRB223.4%
Stephen AndersonTE182.8%
Keith MumpheryWR162.5%
Alfred BlueRB162.5%
Wendall WilliamsWR71.1%
Akeem HuntRB60.9%
Tyler ErvinRB50.8%
Brock OsweilerQB10.2%
Jay ProschFB10.2%
Los Angeles Chargers2024–25 seasons
Houston Texans2024–25 seasons
