RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Oct 1, 2023
Land Clark
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.7
≈ in line with the league average (12.0)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
97.5
≈ in line with the league average (98.2)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.4
≈ in line with the league average (9.6)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 508 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playNRG Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 100 (15th of 32, 100 = league average) · 45.7 points a game in 91 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2024 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2024 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
LAC offensevsHOU defense
LAC offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups · HOU defense in 4 (4 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.06
#15
−0.04
Stronger#3
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.07
#17
−0.14
Stronger#3
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
40%
#11
36%
Stronger#3
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
55%
#20slight
60%
#21
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 20 places
7.7%
#23
8.0%
Stronger#3
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.67
#3slight
1.63
#4
HOU offensevsLAC defense
HOU offense ranks better in 0 of 6 matchups · LAC defense in 6 (5 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.01
#22
−0.03
Stronger#6
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.11
#25
−0.12
Stronger#7
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
39%
#18
36%
Stronger#4
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 26 places
48%
#28
45%
Stronger#2
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 21 places
8.8%
#30
7.1%
Stronger#9
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.11
#13
1.39
slight#9
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
LAC offenseHOU defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors HOU
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:LAC scores 46% · allows 55%HOU scores 53% · allows 49%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
LACHOUsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
LAC4 games
Scored13.5
Allowed6.8
Pass share33%
27–38% · 138 plays
HOU10 games
Scored9.8
Allowed12.3
Pass share45%
39–51% · 278 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
LAC6 games
Scored8.3
Allowed8.3
Pass share46%
36–57% · 169 plays
HOU3 games
Scored16.3
Allowed7.3
Pass share56%
48–65% · 94 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
LAC7 games
Scored11.1
Allowed12.6
Pass share66%
60–72% · 221 plays
HOU4 games
Scored11.3
Allowed8.8
Pass share72%
65–78% · 134 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
LACat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 6 · trailed 7 (of 17)
4.2
5.8Q1
5.1
5.9Q2
9.3scored11.7allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.4
3.9Q3
5.2
5.8Q4
HOUat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 4 (of 17)
4.8
2.8Q1
7.8
7.2Q2
12.6scored10.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.4
5.6Q3
7.9
5.0Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.4
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
LACHOU
11-7
Record
11-8
23.0
Points for / game
22.0
18.5
Points against / game
21.4
5-3 / 6-4
Home / road
6-3 / 5-5
L W W W L
Last 5
L W W L L
2024 season only (not a rolling window) · 18–19 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
LACHOU
0.010
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.047
-0.067
EPA / play allowed
-0.084
230
Pass yards / game
236
107
Rush yards / game
117
225
Pass yards allowed
220
120
Rush yards allowed
107
0.6 / 1.4
Turnovers / takeaways
1.0 / 1.9
2.7 / 2.7
Sacks allowed / made
3.4 / 2.9
16.6
First downs / game
17.1
40
Penalty yards / game
60
+3.0 · #16 of 49
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−0.9 · #33 of 49
2024 season to date · 18–19 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
LACHOU
1-11 · 8%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
8-12 · 40%
Last two seasons (2023–2024), LAC 35 games, HOU 38. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
2LACseriesHOU5
Avg total points
49.7
Meetings
7
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (7 of the 15 seasons in our history). HOU have won the last 2.
2025HOU 20 at LAC 16HOU
2024LAC 12 at HOU 32PlayoffsHOU
2022LAC 34 at HOU 24LAC
2021LAC 29 at HOU 41HOU
2019HOU 27 at LAC 20HOU
2016LAC 21 at HOU 13LAC
2013HOU 31 at LAC 28HOU
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Ladd McConkeyWR12624.3%
Quentin JohnstonWR9618.5%
Will DisslyTE6913.3%
Josh PalmerWR6512.5%
J.K. DobbinsRB397.5%
Stone SmarttTE193.7%
Derius DavisWR183.5%
Simi FehokoWR163.1%
DJ CharkWR142.7%
Hayden HurstTE132.5%
Jalen ReagorWR122.3%
Kimani VidalRB91.7%
Tucker FiskTE91.7%
Gus EdwardsRB51.0%
Hassan HaskinsRB40.8%
Eric TomlinsonTE40.8%
Nico CollinsWR11518.9%
Dalton SchultzTE9315.3%
Tank DellWR8113.3%
Stefon DiggsWR6410.5%
Joe MixonRB579.4%
John Metchie IIIWR477.7%
Robert WoodsWR345.6%
Xavier HutchinsonWR335.4%
Dare OgunbowaleRB294.8%
Cade StoverTE264.3%
Cam AkersRB71.2%
Dameon PierceRB50.8%
Diontae JohnsonWR50.8%
Brevin JordanTE30.5%
J.J. TaylorRB30.5%
Jared WayneWR20.3%
C.J. StroudQB10.2%
Irv SmithTE10.2%
Andrew BeckFB10.2%
Los Angeles Chargers2024–25 seasons
Houston Texans2024–25 seasons
