RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Clete Blakeman
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playGeorgia Dome · TurfStadium scoring factor 102 (12th of 32, 100 = league average) · 46.6 points a game in 74 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Minnesota Vikings · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:MIN scores 48% · allows 55%ATL scores 58% · allows 46%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
MINATLsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
MIN4 games
Scored8.0
Allowed4.8
Pass share51%
43–60% · 113 plays
ATL6 games
Scored10.3
Allowed13.0
Pass share37%
25–49% · 143 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
MIN7 games
Scored10.3
Allowed7.1
Pass share49%
36–62% · 191 plays
ATL5 games
Scored12.4
Allowed13.2
Pass share53%
42–65% · 167 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
MIN6 games
Scored11.0
Allowed11.3
Pass share60%
52–68% · 139 plays
ATL6 games
Scored5.3
Allowed12.7
Pass share58%
47–68% · 177 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
MINat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 6 (of 17)
4.9
3.8Q1
4.4
6.1Q2
9.3scored9.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.9
4.2Q3
6.1
3.9Q4
ATLat the half: led 6 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 6 (of 17)
5.1
5.1Q1
7.7
5.9Q2
12.8scored11.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.9
5.4Q3
6.3
7.1Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
MINATL
11-6
Record
8-8
22.0
Points for / game
21.2
18.4
Points against / game
21.6
6-3 / 5-3
Home / road
4-4 / 4-4
L W W W L
Last 5
L W W L L
2015 season only (not a rolling window) · 16–17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
MINATL
-0.013
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.001
-0.053
EPA / play allowed
0.003
200
Pass yards / game
288
133
Rush yards / game
100
246
Pass yards allowed
250
109
Rush yards allowed
105
0.9 / 1.5
Turnovers / takeaways
1.6 / 1.7
2.8 / 2.6
Sacks allowed / made
2.0 / 1.2
16.2
First downs / game
20.3
50
Penalty yards / game
61
+0.7 · #22 of 47
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+3.0 · #15 of 47
2015 season to date · 16–17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
MINATL
8-13 · 38%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
8-8 · 50%
Last two seasons (2014–2015), MIN 33 games, ATL 32. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
6MINseriesATL2
Avg total points
46.9
Meetings
8
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (8 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2025ATL 22 at MIN 6ATL
2024ATL 21 at MIN 42MIN
2023MIN 31 at ATL 28MIN
2020ATL 40 at MIN 23ATL
2019ATL 12 at MIN 28MIN
2017MIN 14 at ATL 9MIN
2015MIN 20 at ATL 10MIN
2014ATL 28 at MIN 41MIN
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Stefon DiggsWR9019.3%
Kyle RudolphTE7415.8%
Mike WallaceWR7315.6%
Jarius WrightWR5311.3%
Adrian PetersonRB388.1%
Jerick McKinnonRB347.3%
Matt AsiataRB234.9%
Rhett EllisonTE194.1%
Adam ThielenWR194.1%
MyCole PruittTE183.9%
Charles D. JohnsonWR132.8%
Zach LineFB112.4%
Cordarrelle PattersonRB20.4%
Julio JonesWR20332.9%
Devonta FreemanRB9715.7%
Jacob TammeTE8113.1%
Roddy WhiteWR7011.3%
Leonard HankersonWR467.5%
Justin HardyWR365.8%
Nick WilliamsWR254.1%
Patrick DiMarcoRB172.8%
Terron WardRB132.1%
Levine ToiloloTE121.9%
Tevin ColemanRB111.8%
Tony MoeakiTE50.8%
Eric WeemsWR10.2%
Minnesota Vikings2024–25 seasons
Atlanta Falcons2024–25 seasons
