RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Jan 8, 2023
Alex Kemp
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
12.6
≈ in line with the league average (11.8)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
101.6
≈ in line with the league average (96.0)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
10.0
≈ in line with the league average (9.4)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 508 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playU.S. Bank Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 98 (21th of 32, 100 = league average) · 44.8 points a game in 85 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2024 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2024 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
ATL offensevsMIN defense
ATL offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · MIN defense in 4 (3 by a clear margin) · 1 even
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.05
#16
−0.04
Stronger#4
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.01
#7
−0.17
slight#2
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 13 places
40%
#15
35%
Stronger#2
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.· even
56%
#18
58%
#18
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
5.4%
#7Stronger
6.9%
#15
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 24 places
1.35
#25
1.72
Stronger#1
MIN offensevsATL defense
MIN offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · ATL defense in 2
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.05
#17Stronger
+0.13
#28
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.10
#21
−0.05
slight#18
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 17 places
40%
#14Stronger
45%
#31
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
55%
#21Stronger
65%
#28
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
8.6%
#28slight
4.8%
#31
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.22
#19
1.00
slight#18
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
ATL offenseMIN defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors MIN
+0.05#16▲
−0.04#4▲
Pass success ratefavors MIN
48%#14
44%#8
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors MIN
9.1%#13
7.5%#7
Yards / dropback
6.9#7
6.0#8
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
8.0
7.8
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
11%
13%
Short throws (≤5 air)
45%
53%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors MIN
−0.1#20▼
−0.4#8▲
YAC / completionfavors MIN
5.4#11
4.9#5
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors ATL
5.4%#7▼
6.9%#15
Scramble rate
1.2%
3.5%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors MIN
3.4%#29
3.6%#2▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 38 · M 23 · R 39
L 36 · M 25 · R 39
MIN offenseATL defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors MIN
+0.05#17▼
+0.13#28
Pass success ratefavors MIN
49%#9
47%#21
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
9.9%#7▼
7.1%#4▼
Yards / dropbackfavors MIN
6.6#12
6.5#22
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
8.6
7.1
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
13%
10%
Short throws (≤5 air)
48%
54%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors MIN
+3.4#9▼
+4.0#31▼
YAC / completionfavors ATL
4.9#26
4.8#3
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
8.6%#28
4.8%#31▲
Scramble rate
4.4%
6.9%
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
2.2%#19▼
2.1%#20▲
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 38 · M 22 · R 40
L 39 · M 19 · R 42
Atlanta Falcons · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:ATL scores 58% · allows 46%MIN scores 48% · allows 55%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
ATLMINsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
ATL6 games
Scored10.3
Allowed13.0
Pass share37%
25–49% · 143 plays
MIN4 games
Scored8.0
Allowed4.8
Pass share51%
43–60% · 113 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
ATL5 games
Scored12.4
Allowed13.2
Pass share53%
42–65% · 167 plays
MIN7 games
Scored10.3
Allowed7.1
Pass share49%
36–62% · 191 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
ATL6 games
Scored5.3
Allowed12.7
Pass share58%
47–68% · 177 plays
MIN6 games
Scored11.0
Allowed11.3
Pass share60%
52–68% · 139 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
ATLat the half: led 6 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 6 (of 17)
5.1
5.1Q1
7.7
5.9Q2
12.8scored11.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.9
5.4Q3
6.3
7.1Q4
MINat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 6 (of 17)
4.9
3.8Q1
4.4
6.1Q2
9.3scored9.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.9
4.2Q3
6.1
3.9Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
ATLMIN
8-9
Record
14-4
22.9
Points for / game
24.5
24.9
Points against / game
19.9
4-5 / 4-4
Home / road
8-1 / 6-3
L L W W L
Last 5
L L W W W
2024 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
ATLMIN
0.032
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.005
0.060
EPA / play allowed
-0.082
252
Pass yards / game
257
131
Rush yards / game
109
236
Pass yards allowed
259
121
Rush yards allowed
93
1.2 / 1.4
Turnovers / takeaways
1.1 / 2.0
1.9 / 1.8
Sacks allowed / made
3.2 / 2.8
19.5
First downs / game
18.1
49
Penalty yards / game
48
+0.3 · #26 of 49
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+1.2 · #22 of 49
2024 season to date · 17–18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
ATLMIN
3-9 · 25%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
7-7 · 50%
Last two seasons (2023–2024), ATL 34 games, MIN 35. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
2ATLseriesMIN6
Avg total points
46.9
Meetings
8
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (8 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2025ATL 22 at MIN 6ATL
2024ATL 21 at MIN 42MIN
2023MIN 31 at ATL 28MIN
2020ATL 40 at MIN 23ATL
2019ATL 12 at MIN 28MIN
2017MIN 14 at ATL 9MIN
2015MIN 20 at ATL 10MIN
2014ATL 28 at MIN 41MIN
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Drake LondonWR15829.3%
Darnell MooneyWR10619.7%
Ray-Ray McCloudWR8716.1%
Kyle PittsTE7413.7%
Bijan RobinsonRB7213.4%
Tyler AllgeierRB132.4%
KhaDarel HodgeWR122.2%
Charlie WoernerTE122.2%
Casey WashingtonWR20.4%
Chris BlairWR20.4%
Ross DwelleyTE10.2%
Justin JeffersonWR16229.1%
Jordan AddisonWR10719.2%
Aaron JonesRB6812.2%
T.J. HockensonTE6712.0%
Jalen NailorWR478.4%
Johnny MundtTE305.4%
Josh OliverTE295.2%
Trent SherfieldWR122.2%
Cam AkersRB112.0%
Brandon PowellWR101.8%
C.J. HamFB71.3%
Ty ChandlerRB61.1%
Myles GaskinRB10.2%
Atlanta Falcons2024–25 seasons
Minnesota Vikings2024–25 seasons
