RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Gene Steratore
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playUniversity of Phoenix Stadium · grassStadium scoring factor 104 (8th of 32, 100 = league average) · 47.3 points a game in 82 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Houston Texans · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
2013 season
Andre Johnson · 181 (29.1%)DeAndre Hopkins · 91 (14.7%)Garrett Graham · 89 (14.3%)Ben Tate · 49 (7.9%)Owen Daniels · 41 (6.6%)Keshawn Martin · 40 (6.4%)Arian Foster · 35 (5.6%)Ryan Griffin · 28 (4.5%)DeVier Posey · 25 (4.0%)Dennis Johnson · 12 (1.9%)Greg Jones · 11 (1.8%)Lestar Jean · 8 (1.3%)Jonathan Grimes · 6 (1.0%)Ray Graham · 3 (0.5%)Deji Karim · 2 (0.3%)
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:HOU scores 53% · allows 49%ARI scores 51% · allows 50%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
HOUARIsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
HOU10 games
Scored9.8
Allowed12.3
Pass share45%
39–51% · 278 plays
ARI5 games
Scored8.6
Allowed14.2
Pass share54%
43–65% · 152 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
HOU3 games
Scored16.3
Allowed7.3
Pass share56%
48–65% · 94 plays
ARI3 games
Scored3.3
Allowed17.0
Pass share67%
64–69% · 66 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
HOU4 games
Scored11.3
Allowed8.8
Pass share72%
65–78% · 134 plays
ARI9 games
Scored13.7
Allowed15.7
Pass share73%
67–78% · 308 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
HOUat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 4 (of 17)
4.8
2.8Q1
7.8
7.2Q2
12.6scored10.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.4
5.6Q3
7.9
5.0Q4
ARIat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 9 (of 17)
5.2
7.6Q1
5.6
8.1Q2
10.8scored15.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
4.9
7.0Q3
5.4
8.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
HOUARI
2-14
Record
10-6
17.3
Points for / game
23.7
26.8
Points against / game
20.3
1-7 / 1-7
Home / road
6-2 / 4-4
L L L L L
Last 5
L W W W L
2013 season only (not a rolling window) · 16 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
HOUARI
-0.095
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.036
0.014
EPA / play allowed
-0.106
261
Pass yards / game
268
109
Rush yards / game
96
207
Pass yards allowed
254
122
Rush yards allowed
84
1.8 / 1.1
Turnovers / takeaways
1.8 / 1.9
2.6 / 1.9
Sacks allowed / made
2.6 / 2.9
18.0
First downs / game
18.1
71
Penalty yards / game
47
−3.1 · #37 of 46
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−0.2 · #24 of 46
2013 season to date · 16 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
HOUARI
1-12 · 8%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
8-13 · 38%
Last two seasons (2012–2013), HOU 34 games, ARI 32. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3HOUseriesARI2
Avg total points
47.2
Meetings
5
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (5 of the 15 seasons in our history). HOU have won the last 2.
2025ARI 20 at HOU 40HOU
2023ARI 16 at HOU 21HOU
2021HOU 5 at ARI 31ARI
2017ARI 21 at HOU 31HOU
2013HOU 24 at ARI 27ARI
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Andre JohnsonWR18129.1%
DeAndre HopkinsWR9114.7%
Garrett GrahamTE8914.3%
Ben TateRB497.9%
Owen DanielsTE416.6%
Keshawn MartinWR406.4%
Arian FosterRB355.6%
Ryan GriffinTE284.5%
DeVier PoseyWR254.0%
Dennis JohnsonRB121.9%
Greg JonesFB111.8%
Lestar JeanWR81.3%
Jonathan GrimesRB61.0%
Ray GrahamRB30.5%
Deji KarimRB20.3%
Larry FitzgeraldWR13424.2%
Michael FloydWR11220.3%
Andre RobertsWR7613.7%
Rob HouslerTE5710.3%
Andre EllingtonRB5710.3%
Jim DrayTE325.8%
Rashard MendenhallRB213.8%
Jaron BrownWR183.3%
Alfonso SmithRB132.4%
Brittan GoldenWR101.8%
Stepfan TaylorRB91.6%
Jake BallardTE91.6%
Kerry TaylorWR40.7%
Kory SperryTE10.2%
Houston Texans2024–25 seasons
Arizona Cardinals2024–25 seasons
