RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Bill Leavy
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playReliant Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 100 (15th of 32, 100 = league average) · 45.7 points a game in 91 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Los Angeles Rams · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:LAR scores 52% · allows 49%HOU scores 53% · allows 49%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
LARHOUsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
LAR10 games
Scored14.2
Allowed12.8
Pass share50%
42–58% · 318 plays
HOU10 games
Scored9.8
Allowed12.3
Pass share45%
39–51% · 278 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
LAR3 games
Scored9.0
Allowed13.7
Pass share54%
42–67% · 111 plays
HOU3 games
Scored16.3
Allowed7.3
Pass share56%
48–65% · 94 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
LAR4 games
Scored19.0
Allowed7.5
Pass share64%
53–75% · 135 plays
HOU4 games
Scored11.3
Allowed8.8
Pass share72%
65–78% · 134 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
LARat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 4 (of 17)
7.0
4.1Q1
8.5
7.2Q2
15.5scored11.3allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.1
4.9Q3
7.8
6.3Q4
HOUat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 4 (of 17)
4.8
2.8Q1
7.8
7.2Q2
12.6scored10.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.4
5.6Q3
7.9
5.0Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
LARHOU
7-9
Record
2-14
21.8
Points for / game
17.3
22.8
Points against / game
26.8
5-3 / 2-6
Home / road
1-7 / 1-7
L W W L L
Last 5
L L L L L
2013 season only (not a rolling window) · 16 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
LARHOU
-0.077
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.095
-0.010
EPA / play allowed
0.014
210
Pass yards / game
261
110
Rush yards / game
109
263
Pass yards allowed
207
103
Rush yards allowed
122
1.1 / 2.2
Turnovers / takeaways
1.8 / 1.1
2.3 / 3.3
Sacks allowed / made
2.6 / 1.9
15.4
First downs / game
18.0
63
Penalty yards / game
71
−1.4 · #27 of 46
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−3.6 · #41 of 46
2013 season to date · 16 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
LARHOU
10-15-1 · 40%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
1-12 · 8%
Last two seasons (2012–2013), LAR 32 games, HOU 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
4LARseriesHOU0
Avg total points
43.5
Meetings
4
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (4 of the 15 seasons in our history). LAR have won the last 4.
2025HOU 9 at LAR 14LAR
2021LAR 38 at HOU 22LAR
2017HOU 7 at LAR 33LAR
2013LAR 38 at HOU 13LAR
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jared CookTE8617.1%
Chris GivensWR8316.5%
Tavon AustinWR6913.7%
Austin PettisWR6312.5%
Lance KendricksTE469.1%
Zac StacyRB357.0%
Brian QuickWR346.8%
Stedman BaileyWR255.0%
Daryl RichardsonRB183.6%
Cory HarkeyTE183.6%
Isaiah PeadRB153.0%
Benny CunninghamRB102.0%
Mike McNeillTE10.2%
Andre JohnsonWR18129.1%
DeAndre HopkinsWR9114.7%
Garrett GrahamTE8914.3%
Ben TateRB497.9%
Owen DanielsTE416.6%
Keshawn MartinWR406.4%
Arian FosterRB355.6%
Ryan GriffinTE284.5%
DeVier PoseyWR254.0%
Dennis JohnsonRB121.9%
Greg JonesFB111.8%
Lestar JeanWR81.3%
Jonathan GrimesRB61.0%
Ray GrahamRB30.5%
Deji KarimRB20.3%
Los Angeles Rams2024–25 seasons
Houston Texans2024–25 seasons
