RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Oct 22, 2023
Craig Wrolstad
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
13.0
≈ in line with the league average (12.0)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
108.9
≈ in line with the league average (97.7)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
10.4
≈ in line with the league average (9.6)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 478 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playSoFi Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 97 (25th of 32, 100 = league average) · 44.1 points a game in 53 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
HOU offensevsLAR defense
HOU offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups · LAR defense in 5 (5 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.03
#18
−0.02
Stronger#11
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 23 places
−0.11
#30
−0.09
Stronger#7
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
39%
#18
38%
Stronger#12
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 21 places
46%
#29
53%
Stronger#8
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
5.1%
#9slight
6.6%
#13
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.00
#12
1.50
Stronger#6
LAR offensevsHOU defense
LAR offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · HOU defense in 4 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.22
#2
−0.16
slight#1
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.04
#4
−0.16
slight#2
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 21 places
38%
#23
34%
Stronger#2
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
64%
#7Stronger
55%
#13
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
3.9%
#3slight
8.1%
#5
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.80
#3
1.68
slight#2
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
HOU offenseLAR defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors LAR
+0.03#18▼
−0.02#11▲
Pass success ratefavors LAR
44%#22
45%#14
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
7.4%#20
8.0%#16
Yards / dropback
6.0#18
6.1#14
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
8.3
8.0
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
11%
11%
Short throws (≤5 air)
50%
51%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors LAR
−2.8#26▼
−0.9#10▼
YAC / completionfavors LAR
4.5#29
4.7#7
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
5.1%#9
6.6%#13▼
Scramble rate
4.8%
4.1%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors LAR
2.1%#18▲
2.8%#9
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 38 · M 19 · R 44
L 38 · M 25 · R 37
LAR offenseHOU defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
+0.22#2
−0.16#1▼
Pass success rate
51%#4
38%#1
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors LAR
11.5%#1
8.1%#17
Yards / dropback
7.3#2
5.4#2
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
9.7
8.2
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
16%
13%
Short throws (≤5 air)
50%
52%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors HOU
+0.7#15▼
−4.7#3▲
YAC / completionfavors HOU
4.9#23
5.0#15
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
3.9%#3
8.1%#5
Scramble rate
1.2%
5.2%
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
1.3%#1
3.5%#3
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 35 · M 22 · R 43
L 40 · M 23 · R 37
Houston Texans · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:HOU scores 53% · allows 49%LAR scores 52% · allows 49%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
HOULARsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
HOU10 games
Scored9.8
Allowed12.3
Pass share45%
39–51% · 278 plays
LAR10 games
Scored14.2
Allowed12.8
Pass share50%
42–58% · 318 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
HOU3 games
Scored16.3
Allowed7.3
Pass share56%
48–65% · 94 plays
LAR3 games
Scored9.0
Allowed13.7
Pass share54%
42–67% · 111 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
HOU4 games
Scored11.3
Allowed8.8
Pass share72%
65–78% · 134 plays
LAR4 games
Scored19.0
Allowed7.5
Pass share64%
53–75% · 135 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
HOUat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 4 (of 17)
4.8
2.8Q1
7.8
7.2Q2
12.6scored10.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.4
5.6Q3
7.9
5.0Q4
LARat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 4 (of 17)
7.0
4.1Q1
8.5
7.2Q2
15.5scored11.3allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.1
4.9Q3
7.8
6.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.4
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
HOULAR
13-6
Record
14-6
23.7
Points for / game
29.9
17.3
Points against / game
21.3
7-2 / 6-4
Home / road
7-1 / 7-5
L W W W W
Last 5
L W W W L
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 19–20 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
HOULAR
-0.031
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.134
-0.144
EPA / play allowed
-0.024
233
Pass yards / game
282
109
Rush yards / game
125
201
Pass yards allowed
243
93
Rush yards allowed
110
0.9 / 2.2
Turnovers / takeaways
0.7 / 1.6
1.9 / 2.9
Sacks allowed / made
1.4 / 2.6
16.6
First downs / game
21.3
56
Penalty yards / game
35
+2.5 · #20 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+7.1 · #3 of 52
2025 season to date · 19–20 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
HOULAR
7-10 · 41%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-9 · 36%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), HOU 38 games, LAR 39. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
0HOUseriesLAR4
Avg total points
43.5
Meetings
4
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (4 of the 15 seasons in our history). LAR have won the last 4.
2025HOU 9 at LAR 14LAR
2021LAR 38 at HOU 22LAR
2017HOU 7 at LAR 33LAR
2013LAR 38 at HOU 13LAR
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Nico CollinsWR12720.2%
Dalton SchultzTE11217.8%
Jayden HigginsWR8213.0%
Xavier HutchinsonWR7411.7%
Christian KirkWR6710.6%
Woody MarksRB406.3%
Jaylin NoelWR375.9%
Cade StoverTE213.3%
Nick ChubbRB213.3%
Dare OgunbowaleRB132.1%
Harrison BryantTE121.9%
Braxton BerriosWR81.3%
Jawhar JordanRB71.1%
Justin WatsonWR40.6%
Brenden BatesTE20.3%
Jared WayneWR20.3%
Dameon PierceRB10.2%
Puka NacuaWR20829.8%
Davante AdamsWR13919.9%
Colby ParkinsonTE7010.0%
Kyren WilliamsRB598.5%
Tyler HigbeeTE426.0%
Davis AllenTE334.7%
Terrance FergusonTE314.4%
Konata MumpfieldWR294.2%
Jordan WhittingtonWR273.9%
Xavier SmithWR243.4%
Blake CorumRB192.7%
Tutu AtwellWR152.2%
Ronnie RiversRB10.1%
Houston Texans2024–25 seasons
Los Angeles Rams2024–25 seasons
